I delayed heading out on our Labor Day Weekend excursion just long enough to watch the disaster in Evanston. Since then I have been completely isolated from media so haven't read the full tale of woe and angst on all the boards. What I have read so far seems rather like some standard template plugged in after Stanford plays a bad game rather than anything much about the game I actually saw. I thought I'd jump in here because the thread already has some analysis.
First of all, as far as I can tell the offense didn't stink because it was predictable, it stunk because we tried to do things we're not good at and because nobody seemed able to do their jobs: OLine couldn't pass protect (and was iffy in run blocking), receivers couldn't run routes, couldn't hold onto the ball, Hogan couldn't hit guys, Hogan couldn't decide whether and how to scramble, we couldn't manage to execute hand offs/snaps etc. etc.
As for the game plan, I don't think Stanford ran enough for the circumstances at hand, and when we did run there was too much pussy-footing, sideways to the line of scrimmage on plays that we apparently don't know how to block for.
Stanford had 35 pass attempts and 27 rushes. If I remember correctly, 5 of Hogan's 6 "rushes" were pass attempts that didn't work. So, that would be 40 called passes to 22 rushes. Some of that was the end of the game where Stanford was behind and gave up on the game plan, but even before that - that is simply too small a run/pass ratio for this team, particularly when the passing game is a mess amongst all of line/Hogan/receivers.
The RBs (McCaffrey, Wright, Sanders) were actually averaging decent numbers carrying the ball, 5.0 yds/carry. That's not awesome but can be workable - and was better than the pass game that was averaging 4.4 yds/attempt. [Generally passing averages significantly better yds/play than running, but you pay for that with far higher variability.] And of course if you add in sacks and almost-sacks, the pass game was much worse than that [by my calculation, 3.67 yds/pass attempt called].
That average for the RBs, was actually better than Northwestern managed. Our RBs averaged 5.0 yds/rush, theirs 4.4. But Northwestern stuck to it, and that combined with one long QB scramble on a blown assignment by a rookie LB gave them the win.
When we did pass, my memory is that we didn't go down field much. Lots of nickel and dime stuff until late when Rector and Schultz couldn't hold onto the ball. So, not only was the yds/attempt hideous, but yds/completion was only 7.8 [that's a terrible number; I think the second worst in Hogan's career to last year's Utah debacle - which actually played out in a similar manner].Â
I think that one of the problems is that despite everything he says, Shaw doesn't quite really believe Stanford is a power run/play action pass team. Or at least he abandons that approach at odd, inopportune moments.Â
At any rate, I am much more concerned over strategy (general design of the offense plus game planning) rather than tactics (individual play calling). For a year plus now, it seems to me that Stanford doesn't really have any identity but is just skewing from one approach to another on a game by game basis. That's a recipe for never making headway.
I am secretly praying that much of the execution problems were associated with the 9 am PDT start time. As I noted in a previous thread, for at least a decade Stanford has an almost uninterrupted record of playing poorly in games with start times at or before noon PDT. That and the fact that Hogan has occasionally put up stinkers in his career then bounced back just fine [think Utah last year].
EDIT: Since this post is already insanely too long, I'll go ahead and add this detail. Lombardi tweeted, "Kevin Hogan finishes at 4.2 yards per attempt, lowest average in his career. Lower than even Josh Nunes worst starts in 2012."
Unfortunately, this is not correct.
Hogan finished at 4.43 yds/att (the NW QBs finished at 4.2 yds/att)
Last year vs Utah Hogan was at 3.7 yds/att.
Last year vs und Hogan was at 4.39 yds/att.
The Nunes part is correct. His worst game was 4.59 yds/att vs UW.
First of all, as far as I can tell the offense didn't stink because it was predictable, it stunk because we tried to do things we're not good at and because nobody seemed able to do their jobs: OLine couldn't pass protect (and was iffy in run blocking), receivers couldn't run routes, couldn't hold onto the ball, Hogan couldn't hit guys, Hogan couldn't decide whether and how to scramble, we couldn't manage to execute hand offs/snaps etc. etc.
As for the game plan, I don't think Stanford ran enough for the circumstances at hand, and when we did run there was too much pussy-footing, sideways to the line of scrimmage on plays that we apparently don't know how to block for.
Stanford had 35 pass attempts and 27 rushes. If I remember correctly, 5 of Hogan's 6 "rushes" were pass attempts that didn't work. So, that would be 40 called passes to 22 rushes. Some of that was the end of the game where Stanford was behind and gave up on the game plan, but even before that - that is simply too small a run/pass ratio for this team, particularly when the passing game is a mess amongst all of line/Hogan/receivers.
The RBs (McCaffrey, Wright, Sanders) were actually averaging decent numbers carrying the ball, 5.0 yds/carry. That's not awesome but can be workable - and was better than the pass game that was averaging 4.4 yds/attempt. [Generally passing averages significantly better yds/play than running, but you pay for that with far higher variability.] And of course if you add in sacks and almost-sacks, the pass game was much worse than that [by my calculation, 3.67 yds/pass attempt called].
That average for the RBs, was actually better than Northwestern managed. Our RBs averaged 5.0 yds/rush, theirs 4.4. But Northwestern stuck to it, and that combined with one long QB scramble on a blown assignment by a rookie LB gave them the win.
When we did pass, my memory is that we didn't go down field much. Lots of nickel and dime stuff until late when Rector and Schultz couldn't hold onto the ball. So, not only was the yds/attempt hideous, but yds/completion was only 7.8 [that's a terrible number; I think the second worst in Hogan's career to last year's Utah debacle - which actually played out in a similar manner].Â
I think that one of the problems is that despite everything he says, Shaw doesn't quite really believe Stanford is a power run/play action pass team. Or at least he abandons that approach at odd, inopportune moments.Â
At any rate, I am much more concerned over strategy (general design of the offense plus game planning) rather than tactics (individual play calling). For a year plus now, it seems to me that Stanford doesn't really have any identity but is just skewing from one approach to another on a game by game basis. That's a recipe for never making headway.
I am secretly praying that much of the execution problems were associated with the 9 am PDT start time. As I noted in a previous thread, for at least a decade Stanford has an almost uninterrupted record of playing poorly in games with start times at or before noon PDT. That and the fact that Hogan has occasionally put up stinkers in his career then bounced back just fine [think Utah last year].
EDIT: Since this post is already insanely too long, I'll go ahead and add this detail. Lombardi tweeted, "Kevin Hogan finishes at 4.2 yards per attempt, lowest average in his career. Lower than even Josh Nunes worst starts in 2012."
Unfortunately, this is not correct.
Hogan finished at 4.43 yds/att (the NW QBs finished at 4.2 yds/att)
Last year vs Utah Hogan was at 3.7 yds/att.
Last year vs und Hogan was at 4.39 yds/att.
The Nunes part is correct. His worst game was 4.59 yds/att vs UW.