[BostonCard]

But don't kid yourself on a few things.  First, it is always better to be unpredictable than predictable, as you know.  Yes, being unpredictable isn't much help if the WR drops an easy ball when he is wide open, but it's always better to have an open WR than a covered one.  Second, we are seeing some nice plays being called.  The play where Chryst pitched behind him left and then became lead blocker right was brand new; and the screen play to Wright was a TD as soon as it left Hogan's hand, given how out of position/fooled AZ was to defend it.  (BTW, the beauty of that play reminded me of one of Walsh's most memorable calls:  the delayed screen pass to JJ Lasley at ND - god that was beautiful!).  Third, we shouldn't lose sight of the fact that Hogan is playing exceptional ball lately.  He is buying time in the pocket, moving well, and making plays on his own - often by late decision dump offs.  And the toss to Cajuste in the 1H after stepping up in the pocket was an NFL-caliber play.  So, I think we all need to be a little careful projecting that level of play for Hogan going forward - it really has been remarkable (and would be hard to sustain for anyone).

The problem is that for a "unpredictable" plays to work your regular "predictable" plays have to work too.  For example, against a disciplined defense that is not pressing, the defensive linemen will "blow up" a screen easily. I can't recall if the screen to Sanders was against a blitz, but that's when screens are most effective, and DC's are prone to calling blitzes when they are unable to generate pressure with a four-man rush. A play action pass won't work if  the safeties don't bite, which happens when a conventional front stops the running game.  Defenses will keep to their assignments and won't try to do "too much" so you won't get an uncovered wide receiver.  Yes, I loved nothing more than the Virginia Tech linebacker throwing his mouthguard in disgust after getting burned on the fourth or fifth play fake to a tight end going one-on-one with an overmatched defender, but that doesn't happen if our running game isn't firing on all cylinders.

In summary, unpredictable plays are great fun, and they are helpful in keeping the defense honest.  But unpredictable plays don't usually work if the defense is already honest and able to contain the offense's base plays.

BC

[BostonCard]

But don't kid yourself on a few things.  First, it is always better to be unpredictable than predictable, as you know.  Yes, being unpredictable isn't much help if the WR drops an easy ball when he is wide open, but it's always better to have an open WR than a covered one.  Second, we are seeing some nice plays being called.  The play where Chryst pitched behind him left and then became lead blocker right was brand new; and the screen play to Wright was a TD as soon as it left Hogan's hand, given how out of position/fooled AZ was to defend it.  (BTW, the beauty of that play reminded me of one of Walsh's most memorable calls:  the delayed screen pass to JJ Lasley at ND - god that was beautiful!).  Third, we shouldn't lose sight of the fact that Hogan is playing exceptional ball lately.  He is buying time in the pocket, moving well, and making plays on his own - often by late decision dump offs.  And the toss to Cajuste in the 1H after stepping up in the pocket was an NFL-caliber play.  So, I think we all need to be a little careful projecting that level of play for Hogan going forward - it really has been remarkable (and would be hard to sustain for anyone).

The problem is that for a "unpredictable" plays to work your regular "predictable" plays have to work too.  For example, against a disciplined defense that is not pressing, the defensive linemen will "blow up" a screen easily. I can't recall if the screen to Sanders was against a blitz, but that's when screens are most effective, and DC's are prone to calling blitzes when they are unable to generate pressure with a four-man rush. A play action pass won't work if  the safeties don't bite, which happens when a conventional front stops the running game.  Defenses will keep to their assignments and won't try to do "too much" so you won't get an uncovered wide receiver.  Yes, I loved nothing more than the Virginia Tech linebacker throwing his mouthguard in disgust after getting burned on the fourth or fifth play fake to a tight end going one-on-one with an overmatched defender, but that doesn't happen if our running game isn't firing on all cylinders.

In summary, unpredictable plays are great fun, and they are helpful in keeping the defense honest.  But unpredictable plays don't usually work if the defense is already honest and able to contain the offense's base plays.

BC