10-22-2015, 02:57 PM
Here's the analysis (note, I am not remembering many of the teams, so my analysis could well be off):
2006: Undefeated Ohio State and SEC champ Florida are definitely in. Then it's a scramble between 1-loss non-champions (Michigan and Wisconsin), and 2-loss champions (Wake Forrest, USC, and Cal). My guess is that USC and Wisconsin would have been the other two.
2007: There is only 1 1-loss champion (tOSU). 2-loss LSU is probably there too (they were in the BCS championship, and a scramble between 1-loss non-champ Kansas, and 2-loss champions Virginia Tech, USC, and ASU.  My guess is probably USC and Virginia Tech.
2008: Four 1-loss conference champions: Oklahoma, Florida, Penn State, and USC probably go, though maybe Alabama sneaks in.
2009: Undefeated Texas and Alabama are shoo ins. Then it's between 1-loss SEC championship loser Florida, and 2-loss Georgia Tech, Ohio State, and Oregon. I'd guess tOSU and Oregon would be in, but one could easily lose out to Florida, whose only loss was in the SEC championship.
2010: Undefeated Oregon and Auburn are shoo ins. Then the 1-loss BigTen Champs Wisconsin are probably in. Stanford finished #4 in the BCS and was winning impressively so there is a good chance we'd have been picked over 2-loss Oklahoma and Virginia Tech (who we would up beating in the Orange Bowl).
2011: Undefeated LSU is a shoo in, and 1-loss Big12 champion Oklahoma State seems likely. Then it gets tricky. Alabama had one loss, to LSU, and wound up going to the BCS championship, so it seems almost to be assured of a spot. Then do you pick 1-loss Stanford (whose loss was to Oregon), or two loss Wisconsin or Oregon?
2012: SEC Champion Alabama is a shoo-in. So too is Notre Dame, who was undefeated at that point that year and went to the BCS championship. Do you take two 1-loss non-chamions (ORegon and Florida), a weak 1-loss champion (K-state), or 2-loss champions (Stanford, who beat Oregon head-to-head, Florida State, or Oklahoma)? My guess is Florida goes, but I don't know Stanford versus Oregon.
2013: Undefeated Florida State, obviously, SEC champion Auburn, obviously. BigTen champion Michigan State would be most likely, then it gets hard between 11-1 champion Baylor, 11-1 non-champion Alabama, and 11-2 champion Stanford.
2014: We know how this turned out... Florida State, Ohio State, Oregon, and Alabama all went with 0 or 1 loss as conference champs; Baylor and TCU as 1-loss co-champs did not.
BC
2006: Undefeated Ohio State and SEC champ Florida are definitely in. Then it's a scramble between 1-loss non-champions (Michigan and Wisconsin), and 2-loss champions (Wake Forrest, USC, and Cal). My guess is that USC and Wisconsin would have been the other two.
2007: There is only 1 1-loss champion (tOSU). 2-loss LSU is probably there too (they were in the BCS championship, and a scramble between 1-loss non-champ Kansas, and 2-loss champions Virginia Tech, USC, and ASU.  My guess is probably USC and Virginia Tech.
2008: Four 1-loss conference champions: Oklahoma, Florida, Penn State, and USC probably go, though maybe Alabama sneaks in.
2009: Undefeated Texas and Alabama are shoo ins. Then it's between 1-loss SEC championship loser Florida, and 2-loss Georgia Tech, Ohio State, and Oregon. I'd guess tOSU and Oregon would be in, but one could easily lose out to Florida, whose only loss was in the SEC championship.
2010: Undefeated Oregon and Auburn are shoo ins. Then the 1-loss BigTen Champs Wisconsin are probably in. Stanford finished #4 in the BCS and was winning impressively so there is a good chance we'd have been picked over 2-loss Oklahoma and Virginia Tech (who we would up beating in the Orange Bowl).
2011: Undefeated LSU is a shoo in, and 1-loss Big12 champion Oklahoma State seems likely. Then it gets tricky. Alabama had one loss, to LSU, and wound up going to the BCS championship, so it seems almost to be assured of a spot. Then do you pick 1-loss Stanford (whose loss was to Oregon), or two loss Wisconsin or Oregon?
2012: SEC Champion Alabama is a shoo-in. So too is Notre Dame, who was undefeated at that point that year and went to the BCS championship. Do you take two 1-loss non-chamions (ORegon and Florida), a weak 1-loss champion (K-state), or 2-loss champions (Stanford, who beat Oregon head-to-head, Florida State, or Oklahoma)? My guess is Florida goes, but I don't know Stanford versus Oregon.
2013: Undefeated Florida State, obviously, SEC champion Auburn, obviously. BigTen champion Michigan State would be most likely, then it gets hard between 11-1 champion Baylor, 11-1 non-champion Alabama, and 11-2 champion Stanford.
2014: We know how this turned out... Florida State, Ohio State, Oregon, and Alabama all went with 0 or 1 loss as conference champs; Baylor and TCU as 1-loss co-champs did not.
BC
