[French Rage]

This seems weird.  Silver gives Alabama a 35% chance of winning the SEC and a 54% chance of making the playoff.  That was understandable last week, when there was a small but significant chance that Alabama could wind up 11-1 but watch Ole Miss go to the SEC championship because of their head-to-head.  But this week, Alabama now "controls its own destiny" in that if it wins out, it will go to the SEC championship and if it beats Florida, it will win the SEC.  So, for Alabama not to win the SEC they would have to lose a second game.  While I could believe that an 11-1 Alabama that did not win the SEC championship would go to the playoffs, and perhaps a 11-2 SEC champion Alabama would go to the playoffs, it is inconceivable to me that even in the vaunted SEC, that a 2-loss non-champion will go to the playoffs.  There are simply too many other teams who will be either undefeated or have one loss and will win their championship to consider.

BC

Yeah it's one thing to finish with one-loss in your division and be second in the division, but arguably still second in the conference and never getting to prove yourself in the conference championship (see us and Oregon 2011 through 2013).  It's another to lose to conference championship.  The championship game can help your resume but it can get you too.  It giveth and it taketh.  In a year like this where there will be plenty of one-loss teams floating around, some as conference champs, 2-losses and losing the championship should place you on the outside.

[French Rage]

This seems weird.  Silver gives Alabama a 35% chance of winning the SEC and a 54% chance of making the playoff.  That was understandable last week, when there was a small but significant chance that Alabama could wind up 11-1 but watch Ole Miss go to the SEC championship because of their head-to-head.  But this week, Alabama now "controls its own destiny" in that if it wins out, it will go to the SEC championship and if it beats Florida, it will win the SEC.  So, for Alabama not to win the SEC they would have to lose a second game.  While I could believe that an 11-1 Alabama that did not win the SEC championship would go to the playoffs, and perhaps a 11-2 SEC champion Alabama would go to the playoffs, it is inconceivable to me that even in the vaunted SEC, that a 2-loss non-champion will go to the playoffs.  There are simply too many other teams who will be either undefeated or have one loss and will win their championship to consider.

BC

Yeah it's one thing to finish with one-loss in your division and be second in the division, but arguably still second in the conference and never getting to prove yourself in the conference championship (see us and Oregon 2011 through 2013).  It's another to lose to conference championship.  The championship game can help your resume but it can get you too.  It giveth and it taketh.  In a year like this where there will be plenty of one-loss teams floating around, some as conference champs, 2-losses and losing the championship should place you on the outside.