[ThePassionOfTheChryst]

If Oklahoma loses, the Big12 misses the playoffs you mean.

Yes, that is what I meant.  Good catch.

I think it's a toss up between 11-1 OkSt and 11-2 Stanford.  Who knows how the committee will grade an 11-1 Big12 Champ in OkSt.  The fact that they would be the sole champ of the Big12 makes a difference compared to last year.

Most important games that could determine our playoff chances:
Florida v Florida State
Oklahoma v OK St
Penn St v Michigan St
Florida v Alabama
UNC v Clemson

Ok State is currently #11.  I know the committee is supposed to throw out the rankings every week, but I still have a hard time believing the #11 team is going to leapfrog the #9 team, especially when #11 will be sitting at home while #9 is actually playing a conference title game.  The committee likes Stanford, period.  That's why there's such a discrepancy between our CFP ranking (#9) and our AP/coaches' rankings (#13).  Assuming we can win our next two, I do believe we will be given the benefit of any doubt that may arise, come final rankings time.

We will still need help, obviously.  Had we beaten Oregon, I believe we would have controlled our own destiny.  But now we need help -- but not an unreasonable amount of it.  Beating ND tomorrow will put us into the top 6, regardless of how the weekend shakes out.  Even if #8 Ohio State beats #10 Michigan, I have to imagine our hypothetical win over #6 ND would allow us to leapfrog them.

I still wouldn't give us very strong chances of being in the final 4, but it's also safe to say the post-Oregon eulogies were premature.

[ThePassionOfTheChryst]

If Oklahoma loses, the Big12 misses the playoffs you mean.

Yes, that is what I meant.  Good catch.

I think it's a toss up between 11-1 OkSt and 11-2 Stanford.  Who knows how the committee will grade an 11-1 Big12 Champ in OkSt.  The fact that they would be the sole champ of the Big12 makes a difference compared to last year.

Most important games that could determine our playoff chances:
Florida v Florida State
Oklahoma v OK St
Penn St v Michigan St
Florida v Alabama
UNC v Clemson

Ok State is currently #11.  I know the committee is supposed to throw out the rankings every week, but I still have a hard time believing the #11 team is going to leapfrog the #9 team, especially when #11 will be sitting at home while #9 is actually playing a conference title game.  The committee likes Stanford, period.  That's why there's such a discrepancy between our CFP ranking (#9) and our AP/coaches' rankings (#13).  Assuming we can win our next two, I do believe we will be given the benefit of any doubt that may arise, come final rankings time.

We will still need help, obviously.  Had we beaten Oregon, I believe we would have controlled our own destiny.  But now we need help -- but not an unreasonable amount of it.  Beating ND tomorrow will put us into the top 6, regardless of how the weekend shakes out.  Even if #8 Ohio State beats #10 Michigan, I have to imagine our hypothetical win over #6 ND would allow us to leapfrog them.

I still wouldn't give us very strong chances of being in the final 4, but it's also safe to say the post-Oregon eulogies were premature.