[ColoradoTree]

Iowa's offense has been very poor the last two outings. 

Nebraska: 250 yds
Michigan State: 268 yds

These things are hard to reconcile:

Stanford 6
Northwestern 16

Iowa 40
Northwestern 10

The only way Iowa can beat Stanford is if Stanford turns the ball over more than 2 times.  Stanford hasn't turned it over once since the Oregon game.  Something tells me that is not a coincidence.

Agreed.  I can absolutely see Iowa putting together long scoring drives on the ground.  But given our red zone defense, I think we'll hold them to field goals more than they get touchdowns.  (And FYI, Iowa's kicker, Marshall Koehn, is good, so he'll probably make them.  Kicked a 57-yarder to beat Pitt.  7-9 from 40-49 yards, too, and 15-19 overall.  A strong leg, as 46 of his 78 kickoffs went for touchbacks, meaning McCaffrey might not be as much of a factor in the return game.) 

But if we come out like we did against USC in the first half and get up a couple of touchdowns early, what I can't see is C.J. Beathard winning the game with his arm.  It doesn't look like Iowa has trailed late in the second half all year, so we haven't seen Beathard bring his team back to win, but here are his lines in their closest games this year:

Wisconsin (10-6 win): 9-21, 77 yards, 1 TD/1 INT (9 rushes for 12 yards) (Iowa won this game by forcing 4 turnovers)
Illinois (29-20 win): 15-31, 200 yards, 2 TD/0 INT (5 rushes for 29 yards)
Pitt (27-24 win): 27-40, 258 yards, 0 TD/1 INT (8 rushes for 39 yards and a TD, 27 of which were on the final GW drive)
Iowa State (31-17 win): 15-25, 215 yards, 3 TD/0 INT (10 rushes for 77 yards)
Minnesota (40-35 win): 18-26, 213 yards, 0 TD/0 INT (10 rushes for 50 yards, 2 TD)
Indiana (35-27 win): 19-31, 233 yards, 1 TD/0 INT (5 rushes for 38 yards, 1 TD)
Nebraska (28-20 win): 9-16, 97 yards, 1 TD/0 INT (3 rushes for 5 yards)
Michigan State (16-13 loss): 18-26, 216 yards, 1 TD/1 INT (5 rushes for -15 yards)

But he can hurt us with his legs, and for that, the Pitt win deserves a special mention.  After Pitt tied the game with less than a minute left, Beathard WAS the offense to get in position for a long FG try.  Starting on the Iowa 30, here's that drive: Beathard 12-yard run; 4-yard pass; Beathard 7-yard run; incomplete; incomplete; Beathard 8-yard run; 57-yard FG good. So, playing prevent in that situation would be a bad idea, given how Beathard took what Pitt gave him and used that space well to gain vital yards on the ground.

The lesson seems to be that if we load the box and focus on stopping their strength (run game) like Michigan State did, Beathard can do OK and get decent numbers, but he won't go off for some crazy stat line.  Still stunning to me that Michigan State held Iowa to 52 yards rushing on 24 carries.  That's just nasty.  Granted, Michigan State's DL is healthier and deeper than ours right now, but if we want a blueprint on how to shut Iowa down, the Spartans gave it to us. 

[ColoradoTree]

Iowa's offense has been very poor the last two outings. 

Nebraska: 250 yds
Michigan State: 268 yds

These things are hard to reconcile:

Stanford 6
Northwestern 16

Iowa 40
Northwestern 10

The only way Iowa can beat Stanford is if Stanford turns the ball over more than 2 times.  Stanford hasn't turned it over once since the Oregon game.  Something tells me that is not a coincidence.

Agreed.  I can absolutely see Iowa putting together long scoring drives on the ground.  But given our red zone defense, I think we'll hold them to field goals more than they get touchdowns.  (And FYI, Iowa's kicker, Marshall Koehn, is good, so he'll probably make them.  Kicked a 57-yarder to beat Pitt.  7-9 from 40-49 yards, too, and 15-19 overall.  A strong leg, as 46 of his 78 kickoffs went for touchbacks, meaning McCaffrey might not be as much of a factor in the return game.) 

But if we come out like we did against USC in the first half and get up a couple of touchdowns early, what I can't see is C.J. Beathard winning the game with his arm.  It doesn't look like Iowa has trailed late in the second half all year, so we haven't seen Beathard bring his team back to win, but here are his lines in their closest games this year:

Wisconsin (10-6 win): 9-21, 77 yards, 1 TD/1 INT (9 rushes for 12 yards) (Iowa won this game by forcing 4 turnovers)
Illinois (29-20 win): 15-31, 200 yards, 2 TD/0 INT (5 rushes for 29 yards)
Pitt (27-24 win): 27-40, 258 yards, 0 TD/1 INT (8 rushes for 39 yards and a TD, 27 of which were on the final GW drive)
Iowa State (31-17 win): 15-25, 215 yards, 3 TD/0 INT (10 rushes for 77 yards)
Minnesota (40-35 win): 18-26, 213 yards, 0 TD/0 INT (10 rushes for 50 yards, 2 TD)
Indiana (35-27 win): 19-31, 233 yards, 1 TD/0 INT (5 rushes for 38 yards, 1 TD)
Nebraska (28-20 win): 9-16, 97 yards, 1 TD/0 INT (3 rushes for 5 yards)
Michigan State (16-13 loss): 18-26, 216 yards, 1 TD/1 INT (5 rushes for -15 yards)

But he can hurt us with his legs, and for that, the Pitt win deserves a special mention.  After Pitt tied the game with less than a minute left, Beathard WAS the offense to get in position for a long FG try.  Starting on the Iowa 30, here's that drive: Beathard 12-yard run; 4-yard pass; Beathard 7-yard run; incomplete; incomplete; Beathard 8-yard run; 57-yard FG good. So, playing prevent in that situation would be a bad idea, given how Beathard took what Pitt gave him and used that space well to gain vital yards on the ground.

The lesson seems to be that if we load the box and focus on stopping their strength (run game) like Michigan State did, Beathard can do OK and get decent numbers, but he won't go off for some crazy stat line.  Still stunning to me that Michigan State held Iowa to 52 yards rushing on 24 carries.  That's just nasty.  Granted, Michigan State's DL is healthier and deeper than ours right now, but if we want a blueprint on how to shut Iowa down, the Spartans gave it to us.