[CornFed]

[quote author=CornFed link=topic=13928.msg146596#msg146596 date=1449524998]
Our chances of beating Ohio State are not meaningfully less that those of beating Iowa.

The numbers say that Stanford has a significantly better chance of beating Iowa.

According to Sagarin's Predictor, Stanford would be a 3-point underdog to Ohio State, which translates to a 42.6% chance of winning. Stanford would be a 5-point favorite over Iowa, which translates to a 64.1% chance of winning.

The difference between a 42.6% chance and a 64.1% chance is meaningful, I think.
[/quote]

Not to dispute the arbitrary precision of the numbers (heaven forbid), but I believe we would beat either Iowa or Ohio State in Pasadena.  The numbers create a false sense of precision which in effect leads one to despair that we would probably lose to Ohio State.  Screw that! 

Our task is clear, however.  We are not playing Ohio State and, whether or not one believes that our victory over them would be more celebrated that our victory over Iowa, it matters not one twit.  All that matters at this moment is preparing for the Rose Bowl as thoroughly as possible and delivering our very best effort.  I sincerely believe that, if we achieve that, we will be victorious.  If we are not, it is because the numbers were wrong about Iowa.

[CornFed]

[quote author=CornFed link=topic=13928.msg146596#msg146596 date=1449524998]
Our chances of beating Ohio State are not meaningfully less that those of beating Iowa.

The numbers say that Stanford has a significantly better chance of beating Iowa.

According to Sagarin's Predictor, Stanford would be a 3-point underdog to Ohio State, which translates to a 42.6% chance of winning. Stanford would be a 5-point favorite over Iowa, which translates to a 64.1% chance of winning.

The difference between a 42.6% chance and a 64.1% chance is meaningful, I think.
[/quote]

Not to dispute the arbitrary precision of the numbers (heaven forbid), but I believe we would beat either Iowa or Ohio State in Pasadena.  The numbers create a false sense of precision which in effect leads one to despair that we would probably lose to Ohio State.  Screw that! 

Our task is clear, however.  We are not playing Ohio State and, whether or not one believes that our victory over them would be more celebrated that our victory over Iowa, it matters not one twit.  All that matters at this moment is preparing for the Rose Bowl as thoroughly as possible and delivering our very best effort.  I sincerely believe that, if we achieve that, we will be victorious.  If we are not, it is because the numbers were wrong about Iowa.