[AlbanyCardinal]

[quote author=AlbanyCardinal link=topic=13928.msg147785#msg147785 date=1449949875]but also our performance agst. a pretty mediocre Wisconsin in the '13 Rose Bowl.

That Wisconsin team was not mediocre. Per advanced rankings they were actually better than this Iowa team. The difference? Wisconsin went 2-5 in close games (2-6 if you count the Rose Bowl), Iowa is 5-1. So while Wisconsin was 8-5 going into the Rose Bowl, they had the talent of a 9- or 10-win team, and while Iowa is 12-1 they have the talent of 10-win team.

It's actually kind of funny, because while the 2012 Stanford team was almost certainly a worse team than the 2015 team, the 2012 Wisconsin team is about as certainly a better team than this Iowa team. But people have a really hard time looking past records in CFB for some reason. You'd think that as much as Stanford fans talk about SOS we'd actually look at this stuff.

Oh, and I don't see anyone being more confident than external indicators merit. We're a 7-point favorite, which translates to winning something like 75% of the time. So it's not just Stanford fans that are pretty confident, the wider world is too.
[/quote]

Because Wisconsin in '12/'13 went 2-6 in close games, whereas Iowa went 5-1 this season, Wiscy's the better team? That makes no sense, you do see that, right? Does losing close games count as two wins or what am I missing? Also, do you really believe the B10 conference was stronger in '12 than in '15?

[AlbanyCardinal]

[quote author=AlbanyCardinal link=topic=13928.msg147785#msg147785 date=1449949875]but also our performance agst. a pretty mediocre Wisconsin in the '13 Rose Bowl.

That Wisconsin team was not mediocre. Per advanced rankings they were actually better than this Iowa team. The difference? Wisconsin went 2-5 in close games (2-6 if you count the Rose Bowl), Iowa is 5-1. So while Wisconsin was 8-5 going into the Rose Bowl, they had the talent of a 9- or 10-win team, and while Iowa is 12-1 they have the talent of 10-win team.

It's actually kind of funny, because while the 2012 Stanford team was almost certainly a worse team than the 2015 team, the 2012 Wisconsin team is about as certainly a better team than this Iowa team. But people have a really hard time looking past records in CFB for some reason. You'd think that as much as Stanford fans talk about SOS we'd actually look at this stuff.

Oh, and I don't see anyone being more confident than external indicators merit. We're a 7-point favorite, which translates to winning something like 75% of the time. So it's not just Stanford fans that are pretty confident, the wider world is too.
[/quote]

Because Wisconsin in '12/'13 went 2-6 in close games, whereas Iowa went 5-1 this season, Wiscy's the better team? That makes no sense, you do see that, right? Does losing close games count as two wins or what am I missing? Also, do you really believe the B10 conference was stronger in '12 than in '15?