[washingtonismoney]

Because Wisconsin in '12/'13 went 2-6 in close games, whereas Iowa went 5-1 this season, Wiscy's the better team? That makes no sense, you do see that, right? Does losing close games count as two wins or what am I missing? Also, do you really believe the B10 conference was stronger in '12 than in '15?

IN BEFORE STUPAC.

Over the long run, teams go .500 in close games. So overperforming in close games often isn't a sign of skill, or grit, or whatever; it's often a sign of getting lucky bounces or favorable calls. So for instance stupac was very confident (and I somewhat less so) by SC's incredible run of close-game luck under the Helton regime. And sure enough we handled SC rather well.

And you can often predict regression to the mean based on close game luck. So I'd be happy to bet Iowa doesn't do as well next year in close games. Check the difference in close games between Stanford 2012 and Stanford 2013 and 2014. What happened? Did the same personnel somehow become gutless chokers? Or, more likely, is it just kind of random?

[washingtonismoney]

Because Wisconsin in '12/'13 went 2-6 in close games, whereas Iowa went 5-1 this season, Wiscy's the better team? That makes no sense, you do see that, right? Does losing close games count as two wins or what am I missing? Also, do you really believe the B10 conference was stronger in '12 than in '15?

IN BEFORE STUPAC.

Over the long run, teams go .500 in close games. So overperforming in close games often isn't a sign of skill, or grit, or whatever; it's often a sign of getting lucky bounces or favorable calls. So for instance stupac was very confident (and I somewhat less so) by SC's incredible run of close-game luck under the Helton regime. And sure enough we handled SC rather well.

And you can often predict regression to the mean based on close game luck. So I'd be happy to bet Iowa doesn't do as well next year in close games. Check the difference in close games between Stanford 2012 and Stanford 2013 and 2014. What happened? Did the same personnel somehow become gutless chokers? Or, more likely, is it just kind of random?