[2006alum]

Thanks 2006!  MT I think used to do this sort of analysis--ran into the problem that the play-by-play is not always accurate about substitutions and hence time played.  For example, in looking at the boxscore on GoStanford, the final substitution of Alex, Tess, and Alexa with a minute left is not recorded.  Not sure if there is a better boxscore somewhere....  But I find this fascinating.  Given the hints Kate has given about the use of stats in the coaching decisions, I imagine that the coaches are very well aware of this and similar stats, over time. 

Not being able to see the game, I find this confusing. According to the play-by-play, the final minute or so of the game included no substitutions and went as follows:

GOOD! FT SHOT by Lloyd, Alexis                  01:24  41-55  V 14
                                                01:13              TURNOVR by Thompson, Lili
STEAL by Fagbenle, Temi                        01:12
MISSED LAYUP by Effa, Marguerite                01:09              REBOUND (DEF) by Johnson, Kaylee
                                                00:57  41-57  V 16 GOOD! LAYUP by McCall, Erica [PNT]
                                                00:57              ASSIST by Thompson, Lili
TURNOVR by Fagbenle, Temi                      00:39
GOOD! LAYUP by Edwards, Sadie [PNT]            00:27  43-57  V 14
MISSED FT SHOT by Edwards, Sadie                00:27              FOUL by Samuelson, Karlie (P4T10)
                                                00:27              REBOUND (DEF) by McPhee, Brittany
                                                00:21              TURNOVR by McPhee, Brittany
STEAL by Edwards, Sadie                        00:20
GOOD! LAYUP by Edwards, Sadie [PNT]            00:19  45-57  V 12
                                                00:15              TURNOVR by Johnson, Kaylee
STEAL by Edwards, Sadie                        00:14
GOOD! LAYUP by Edwards, Sadie [PNT]            00:13  47-57  V 10

At a minimum, Karlie and Brittany were in the game until the last 20 seconds, and Kaylee until the last 15. Lili and Erica were also in until at least the 0:57 mark. Who is it we think Alex, Alexa and Tess replaced? They are listed in the box score with 1 minute played each. So unless the play-by-play is just making things up, the earliest all three could have been in was with Brittany and Kaylee after Karlie fouled for the fourth time (which might make sense as a time to make the substitutions). This does give me some pause, however, in relying on the play-by-play to calculate differentials.

When I do my first write-ups it is before the full boxscores become available--prior to the minutes played being posted.  In looking those minutes-played over today, I noticed that even though Tara played 8 players for much of the game, four players got 30+ minutes (McCall, Thompson, Sniezek, and Samuelson) and the final slot was split between Kaylee and Kailee, with Britt and Alanna playing small roles in relief.  The time was not spread out as much as, for example, ASU does between its players.  In last night's ASU win over Arizona, ASU played 10 players, none more than 30 with most of its starters in the mid 20s.  Most of our starters (other than Kailee) were in the mid 30s.  So Tara has not really embraced the deep rotation model as much as I expected.

On Sniezek's differential, she played for 35 of the 40 minutes, and she left the game before Tara sent the third string in for the last minute that immediately gave up 3 turnovers and six points.  We were leading by about 15 when she left, so I see where that number comes from.

Here's the differential with those sloppy last thirty seconds removed:
Lili: +15
Erica: +13
Karlie: +16
Marta: +19
Kailee: +1
Kaylee: +16
Brittany: -2
Alanna: +2

So Lili and Erica close the gap a bit with the other three, but because the play-by-play never had Marta subbing out, her numbers go up too. I guess the only real takeaway from this game is that if we're trying to decide between Kaylee and Kailee, the differential between the two is vast based on this game. And maybe Brittany and Alanna's offensive abilities are offset by their defensive lapses.

Finally, it doesn't seem like we are doing our "job" on this board without scrutinizing the team and analyzing weaknesses and areas for improvement.  But let's stress a few positives.  We did win the game for a reason, after all.  Or for a few reasons!

1) The blocking was fantastic.  In fact, the best I have ever seen--better than when we had Appel and Nneka even.  And the sum total of all those blocks were incredibly intimidating for SC to handle.  Just superb work.  We are turning into a dominant inside-defense team.  Our defense on the perimeter may not be as strong, but isn't bad.

3) Tara tried some creative lineups and is clearly aware of the offensive issues and experimenting to find ways to solve them.  Marta made some mistakes, but is steadily showing signs of growth.  The two times she took it in to the basket she showed very fast acceleration and made quite difficult layups to go--around much taller players.  They were nice moves.

Yes, I'm really encouraged by how strong we are inside the paint defensively, and as Bird and Kayl mature, offensively as well. Given that we were in full-scale panic mode about our bigs at this time last year (when Kayl started to drop off but Bird hadn't made the brobdingnagian steps yet), this is super encouraging, and with Fingall coming in next year, we should have good continuity.

Like you, I'm a fan of trying the fast tempo offense. Given our blocking abilities and the general athleticism/fitness of our players, along with a deeper bench, I'm comfortable risking more turnovers if that means creating some more open offensive opportunities. We really get stuck when a defense gets set in a zone and the ball is stuck outside and we play the pass-around-the-perimeter game until the shot clock necessitates that someone heave a doomed clunker. That has been the hallmark of our offensive woes for the past decade, and so I'm all for finding transition opportunities, especially since all three of our guards are great at fast break opportunities and have been struggling offensively. Of course, this is also a less risky strategy against less-good teams or teams without exceptional defensive guards on the other side. It might not work as well against UCLA or Oregon State, for example, as it did against USC.

[2006alum]

Thanks 2006!  MT I think used to do this sort of analysis--ran into the problem that the play-by-play is not always accurate about substitutions and hence time played.  For example, in looking at the boxscore on GoStanford, the final substitution of Alex, Tess, and Alexa with a minute left is not recorded.  Not sure if there is a better boxscore somewhere....  But I find this fascinating.  Given the hints Kate has given about the use of stats in the coaching decisions, I imagine that the coaches are very well aware of this and similar stats, over time. 

Not being able to see the game, I find this confusing. According to the play-by-play, the final minute or so of the game included no substitutions and went as follows:

GOOD! FT SHOT by Lloyd, Alexis                  01:24  41-55  V 14
                                                01:13              TURNOVR by Thompson, Lili
STEAL by Fagbenle, Temi                        01:12
MISSED LAYUP by Effa, Marguerite                01:09              REBOUND (DEF) by Johnson, Kaylee
                                                00:57  41-57  V 16 GOOD! LAYUP by McCall, Erica [PNT]
                                                00:57              ASSIST by Thompson, Lili
TURNOVR by Fagbenle, Temi                      00:39
GOOD! LAYUP by Edwards, Sadie [PNT]            00:27  43-57  V 14
MISSED FT SHOT by Edwards, Sadie                00:27              FOUL by Samuelson, Karlie (P4T10)
                                                00:27              REBOUND (DEF) by McPhee, Brittany
                                                00:21              TURNOVR by McPhee, Brittany
STEAL by Edwards, Sadie                        00:20
GOOD! LAYUP by Edwards, Sadie [PNT]            00:19  45-57  V 12
                                                00:15              TURNOVR by Johnson, Kaylee
STEAL by Edwards, Sadie                        00:14
GOOD! LAYUP by Edwards, Sadie [PNT]            00:13  47-57  V 10

At a minimum, Karlie and Brittany were in the game until the last 20 seconds, and Kaylee until the last 15. Lili and Erica were also in until at least the 0:57 mark. Who is it we think Alex, Alexa and Tess replaced? They are listed in the box score with 1 minute played each. So unless the play-by-play is just making things up, the earliest all three could have been in was with Brittany and Kaylee after Karlie fouled for the fourth time (which might make sense as a time to make the substitutions). This does give me some pause, however, in relying on the play-by-play to calculate differentials.

When I do my first write-ups it is before the full boxscores become available--prior to the minutes played being posted.  In looking those minutes-played over today, I noticed that even though Tara played 8 players for much of the game, four players got 30+ minutes (McCall, Thompson, Sniezek, and Samuelson) and the final slot was split between Kaylee and Kailee, with Britt and Alanna playing small roles in relief.  The time was not spread out as much as, for example, ASU does between its players.  In last night's ASU win over Arizona, ASU played 10 players, none more than 30 with most of its starters in the mid 20s.  Most of our starters (other than Kailee) were in the mid 30s.  So Tara has not really embraced the deep rotation model as much as I expected.

On Sniezek's differential, she played for 35 of the 40 minutes, and she left the game before Tara sent the third string in for the last minute that immediately gave up 3 turnovers and six points.  We were leading by about 15 when she left, so I see where that number comes from.

Here's the differential with those sloppy last thirty seconds removed:
Lili: +15
Erica: +13
Karlie: +16
Marta: +19
Kailee: +1
Kaylee: +16
Brittany: -2
Alanna: +2

So Lili and Erica close the gap a bit with the other three, but because the play-by-play never had Marta subbing out, her numbers go up too. I guess the only real takeaway from this game is that if we're trying to decide between Kaylee and Kailee, the differential between the two is vast based on this game. And maybe Brittany and Alanna's offensive abilities are offset by their defensive lapses.

Finally, it doesn't seem like we are doing our "job" on this board without scrutinizing the team and analyzing weaknesses and areas for improvement.  But let's stress a few positives.  We did win the game for a reason, after all.  Or for a few reasons!

1) The blocking was fantastic.  In fact, the best I have ever seen--better than when we had Appel and Nneka even.  And the sum total of all those blocks were incredibly intimidating for SC to handle.  Just superb work.  We are turning into a dominant inside-defense team.  Our defense on the perimeter may not be as strong, but isn't bad.

3) Tara tried some creative lineups and is clearly aware of the offensive issues and experimenting to find ways to solve them.  Marta made some mistakes, but is steadily showing signs of growth.  The two times she took it in to the basket she showed very fast acceleration and made quite difficult layups to go--around much taller players.  They were nice moves.

Yes, I'm really encouraged by how strong we are inside the paint defensively, and as Bird and Kayl mature, offensively as well. Given that we were in full-scale panic mode about our bigs at this time last year (when Kayl started to drop off but Bird hadn't made the brobdingnagian steps yet), this is super encouraging, and with Fingall coming in next year, we should have good continuity.

Like you, I'm a fan of trying the fast tempo offense. Given our blocking abilities and the general athleticism/fitness of our players, along with a deeper bench, I'm comfortable risking more turnovers if that means creating some more open offensive opportunities. We really get stuck when a defense gets set in a zone and the ball is stuck outside and we play the pass-around-the-perimeter game until the shot clock necessitates that someone heave a doomed clunker. That has been the hallmark of our offensive woes for the past decade, and so I'm all for finding transition opportunities, especially since all three of our guards are great at fast break opportunities and have been struggling offensively. Of course, this is also a less risky strategy against less-good teams or teams without exceptional defensive guards on the other side. It might not work as well against UCLA or Oregon State, for example, as it did against USC.