[stupac2]

How would the possibility of the Democrats reclaiming control of the Senate this year throw a monkey wrench into things, if at all?  It would seem to me that the GOP's hold on the Senate is tenuous at best, and hopefully they realize that.

There's so much game theory here it's actually pretty interesting to think about. It's basically a prisoner's dilemma, where R's either take the safe-but-nonideal outcome (Obama picks someone moderate like Sri who is then confirmed), or gamble for the ideal outcome (R's win presidency and keep senate, replace Scalia with reliable conservative) with a very real chance of a horrible outcome (D's win presidency and senate, replace Scalia with reliable liberal). It's not obvious at all to me that you want to gamble here, especially given the somewhat high likelihood of the GOP nominating Trump and everything going to hell in a handbasket.

And that's ignoring the fact that playing games with the nomination might actually make the least-desirable outcome more likely, but those second-order effects are really hard to game out (this has never happened before and it's hard to know which side is going to be more motivated by needing to replace a justice).

[stupac2]

How would the possibility of the Democrats reclaiming control of the Senate this year throw a monkey wrench into things, if at all?  It would seem to me that the GOP's hold on the Senate is tenuous at best, and hopefully they realize that.

There's so much game theory here it's actually pretty interesting to think about. It's basically a prisoner's dilemma, where R's either take the safe-but-nonideal outcome (Obama picks someone moderate like Sri who is then confirmed), or gamble for the ideal outcome (R's win presidency and keep senate, replace Scalia with reliable conservative) with a very real chance of a horrible outcome (D's win presidency and senate, replace Scalia with reliable liberal). It's not obvious at all to me that you want to gamble here, especially given the somewhat high likelihood of the GOP nominating Trump and everything going to hell in a handbasket.

And that's ignoring the fact that playing games with the nomination might actually make the least-desirable outcome more likely, but those second-order effects are really hard to game out (this has never happened before and it's hard to know which side is going to be more motivated by needing to replace a justice).