[ThePassionOfTheChryst]

Big turnout is a big problem for the RNC.  Big turnout in Montana or California would change nothing, but big turnout in Ohio, North Carolina or Florida would almost certainly move purple states to very solid blue states.

Odds seem strong that Obama will nominate someone close to moderate.  The Republicans in the Senate seem set to stall anyway.  Problem for the RNC is that an actual reason to vote that inspires many is not going to be good for the RNC.  The Democratic nominee could pre-select some very exciting pick (ie, Sen. Warren, an Asian-American, a minority female).  That prospect could fuel high Democratic party turnout.  The Republican nominee would already/should already benefit from high GOP turnout, so this issue, and any theoretical picks by either party, should not offer many incremental RNC voters.

Some irony in the idea that the Republicans stalling could be a gift to the DNC.  Wonder if the Republican Senate might approve an Obama nominee if the polling in August or September suggests that the unfilled vacancy is serving as a catalyst for DNC voter turnout.

It is a pretty fun game theory case.  Likely to be analyzed for decades.

Huh?

[ThePassionOfTheChryst]

Big turnout is a big problem for the RNC.  Big turnout in Montana or California would change nothing, but big turnout in Ohio, North Carolina or Florida would almost certainly move purple states to very solid blue states.

Odds seem strong that Obama will nominate someone close to moderate.  The Republicans in the Senate seem set to stall anyway.  Problem for the RNC is that an actual reason to vote that inspires many is not going to be good for the RNC.  The Democratic nominee could pre-select some very exciting pick (ie, Sen. Warren, an Asian-American, a minority female).  That prospect could fuel high Democratic party turnout.  The Republican nominee would already/should already benefit from high GOP turnout, so this issue, and any theoretical picks by either party, should not offer many incremental RNC voters.

Some irony in the idea that the Republicans stalling could be a gift to the DNC.  Wonder if the Republican Senate might approve an Obama nominee if the polling in August or September suggests that the unfilled vacancy is serving as a catalyst for DNC voter turnout.

It is a pretty fun game theory case.  Likely to be analyzed for decades.

Huh?