[Farm93]

The SCOTUS situation is pure game theory and politics.  The Constitution is clearly taking a back seat.  I don't think anyone can really see it any other way.  However, consistent with the game theory and politics it becomes important for some in the game to claim it is Constitutional and/or the ultimate democratic process.

Either way I am sure the news channels and talk radio types are THRILLED.

Path forward seems clear.  Obama will nominate someone just left of moderate.  Republican Senators will refuse to vote claiming the nominee does not honor Scalia, etc.  Both parties will use the SCOTUS opening as a rally cry at their conventions.  One party or the other will discover they underestimated the impact of the game.  If Dems are wrong (ie. GOP likely to win POTUS) then they will be stuck.  If GOP is wrong (ie. Senate power negatively impacted by stalling) then they may want to approve Obama's nominee.  Dems could then pull the nominee or filibuster if victory in November looks probable.

Seems as though the GOP is banking on the idea that this is an election year winner for them.  I would have thought the GOP base was already motivated based on Iowa and NH participation numbers.  Still this looks like classic loss aversion for the GOP.  Better to take an improbable risky bet to maintain the status quo than accept a certain (though less significant) loss.

Just know that game theory, political science and psychology books will be written on this subject for years. 

[Farm93]

The SCOTUS situation is pure game theory and politics.  The Constitution is clearly taking a back seat.  I don't think anyone can really see it any other way.  However, consistent with the game theory and politics it becomes important for some in the game to claim it is Constitutional and/or the ultimate democratic process.

Either way I am sure the news channels and talk radio types are THRILLED.

Path forward seems clear.  Obama will nominate someone just left of moderate.  Republican Senators will refuse to vote claiming the nominee does not honor Scalia, etc.  Both parties will use the SCOTUS opening as a rally cry at their conventions.  One party or the other will discover they underestimated the impact of the game.  If Dems are wrong (ie. GOP likely to win POTUS) then they will be stuck.  If GOP is wrong (ie. Senate power negatively impacted by stalling) then they may want to approve Obama's nominee.  Dems could then pull the nominee or filibuster if victory in November looks probable.

Seems as though the GOP is banking on the idea that this is an election year winner for them.  I would have thought the GOP base was already motivated based on Iowa and NH participation numbers.  Still this looks like classic loss aversion for the GOP.  Better to take an improbable risky bet to maintain the status quo than accept a certain (though less significant) loss.

Just know that game theory, political science and psychology books will be written on this subject for years.