09-25-2011, 07:20 PM
(09-25-2011, 06:49 PM)garvin link Wrote:Sorry to raise a dissident voice, but after watching a good chunk of the Oregon-Arizona game, I think the Ducks would beat us if the game were played next week. (November is a long way off, with lots of time for injuries, experience and change of fortunes to affect things.) As for our winning streak, most of it was achieved last year, with significantly different players and coaches. It doesn't have a damn thing to do with how good we are right now.
I have no problem with Wilner putting Oregon ahead of Stanford. Oregon's only loss was to a team that has made all of their opponents look pathetic. And some of their opponents have been some of the highest ranked teams in the land. Also Wilner seems almost intentionally terrible at this ranking thing, so fine.
I think the Ducks' O is better than Stanford's O at the moment. But a few thoughts come to mind on this one. The Ducks QB is taking a beating that I don't recall happened with this regularity last year. And the guy is rather fragile looking. My guess is that he might not be quite as crisp by mid-November.
And I am rather certain that Stanford's D is better than Oregon's D. Admittedly, the Skov impact might alter that perception in the next few weeks. Stanford's special teams are better, for sure. If the game was in Oregon, I would sadly believe the Ducks would find the way. And I believe they would be favored.Â
But Sagarin's Predictor rankings suggest that Stanford would be a very slight favorite in a neutral venue today. Stanford is helped by SJSU's decent showings since the Stanford loss and Duke's amazing play in the ACC. Meanwhile, Oregon has a loss to perhaps the best team in the NCAA, a couple of cupcake wins and a win (by a smaller margin) to a common opponent.
In the end it is early, but it does appear that the Pac-12 North & ultimately the Pac-12 Champion will likely be decided on November 12th. If Stanford was not a smallish private school in the West Gameday would be comin' to our city.
Stanford has opened as a 22 point favorite against UCLA. So I guess Vegas odds makers are thinking the 2011 team is doing just fine.

