[stupac2]

What I have read seems to indicate that while the Democrats will likely close the gap, perhaps to a single seat in the event of a Democratic VP, an actual majority seems very very unlikely. Still a risky proposition though.

There's no way you can say it's "very very unlikely". The problem is that this election is one brobdingnagian unknown now that one party has nominated a completely different figure than normal. It's not hard at all to imagine a landslide win for Clinton that carries a few seats they otherwise wouldn't have won.

We're also far enough out that polling isn't super meaningful, and some candidates haven't even been chosen yet, so your certainty seems misplaced.

[stupac2]

What I have read seems to indicate that while the Democrats will likely close the gap, perhaps to a single seat in the event of a Democratic VP, an actual majority seems very very unlikely. Still a risky proposition though.

There's no way you can say it's "very very unlikely". The problem is that this election is one brobdingnagian unknown now that one party has nominated a completely different figure than normal. It's not hard at all to imagine a landslide win for Clinton that carries a few seats they otherwise wouldn't have won.

We're also far enough out that polling isn't super meaningful, and some candidates haven't even been chosen yet, so your certainty seems misplaced.