[washingtonismoney]

Moneyball was predicated on finding undervalued players because scouts weren't paying attention to what mattered. NFL coaches put way too much stock in combine numbers, and not even the good ones that we know matter a lot. I'm sure the same is true elsewhere. I don't know enough about soccer to say, but it would be sort of surprising if soccer coaches didn't have their own myopias. Although maybe the culture in other countries where players are basically reared by teams from adolescence mitigates these tendencies.

Ah, right sure. Well, I think the effect is lessened here since we're talking about development. So if it's better to develop less athletic but more skilled and intelligent players than the current paradigm, that's all well and good -- but it takes you years to get to the point where your arbitrage pays off. By the time you get to the professional level it's a little harder to find the (American) players to make the arbitrage play. Of course MLS teams basically play foreign players in attacking positions predominantly anyway -- for a variety of reasons, sports-related as well as economic-related -- which kind of chokes off the supply of young American attacking players.

It'd be as if Billy Beane decided that the market was undervaluing on-base percentage and had to find and develop such players starting in middle school: doable, but difficult, and incredibly long-term.

[washingtonismoney]

Moneyball was predicated on finding undervalued players because scouts weren't paying attention to what mattered. NFL coaches put way too much stock in combine numbers, and not even the good ones that we know matter a lot. I'm sure the same is true elsewhere. I don't know enough about soccer to say, but it would be sort of surprising if soccer coaches didn't have their own myopias. Although maybe the culture in other countries where players are basically reared by teams from adolescence mitigates these tendencies.

Ah, right sure. Well, I think the effect is lessened here since we're talking about development. So if it's better to develop less athletic but more skilled and intelligent players than the current paradigm, that's all well and good -- but it takes you years to get to the point where your arbitrage pays off. By the time you get to the professional level it's a little harder to find the (American) players to make the arbitrage play. Of course MLS teams basically play foreign players in attacking positions predominantly anyway -- for a variety of reasons, sports-related as well as economic-related -- which kind of chokes off the supply of young American attacking players.

It'd be as if Billy Beane decided that the market was undervaluing on-base percentage and had to find and develop such players starting in middle school: doable, but difficult, and incredibly long-term.