[M T]

I wonder if Ledecky will swim an under-8 minute 800 by the time she is done.

She dropped 8 seconds in the last 4 years, with 2.6 seconds drop in the last year.  Just 4.8 seconds more...  I think it is likely, barring injury or some other negative factor.

She speaks of setting really big goals.  A really big goal is whether she can drop the 25 seconds in the 1500 to break 15 minutes.  A year ago, she swam 15:25.  She dropped her 800 by 2.6 seconds, so I'd think she could have gone a 15:20 if it was in the 2016 Olympics.    I  would not say breaking 15:00 is likely, but she's an amazing swimmer.


Greg Meehan is obviously a very good coach.  Whether he can pull the best out of Katie is yet to be seen.  Stanford women's swimming did not have an All-American distance swimmer this year (which doesn't mean that he can't coach it well, just that I don't see any evidence one way or the other).  Richard Quick was a world-class coach (many championships, multiple Olympics head coach), but apparently Janet Evans didn't feel he helped her enough.

Stanford Men's swimming had one NCAA All American distance swimmer, Liam Egan (he will be a senior), but his 800m was only 5 seconds faster than Katie's.  Maybe they'll train together.

[M T]

I wonder if Ledecky will swim an under-8 minute 800 by the time she is done.

She dropped 8 seconds in the last 4 years, with 2.6 seconds drop in the last year.  Just 4.8 seconds more...  I think it is likely, barring injury or some other negative factor.

She speaks of setting really big goals.  A really big goal is whether she can drop the 25 seconds in the 1500 to break 15 minutes.  A year ago, she swam 15:25.  She dropped her 800 by 2.6 seconds, so I'd think she could have gone a 15:20 if it was in the 2016 Olympics.    I  would not say breaking 15:00 is likely, but she's an amazing swimmer.


Greg Meehan is obviously a very good coach.  Whether he can pull the best out of Katie is yet to be seen.  Stanford women's swimming did not have an All-American distance swimmer this year (which doesn't mean that he can't coach it well, just that I don't see any evidence one way or the other).  Richard Quick was a world-class coach (many championships, multiple Olympics head coach), but apparently Janet Evans didn't feel he helped her enough.

Stanford Men's swimming had one NCAA All American distance swimmer, Liam Egan (he will be a senior), but his 800m was only 5 seconds faster than Katie's.  Maybe they'll train together.