[2006alum]

[quote author=OutsiderFan link=topic=15599.msg170258#msg170258 date=1473188304]
An AP poll update wouldn't be complete without Jon Wilner's unique rankings...
http://collegefootball.ap.org/poll-voter/jon-wilner

Indeed.  We might call him John "Circular Reasoning" Wilner:

http://blogs.mercurynews.com/collegespor...-ballot-6/

So Texas is in the #2 spot (up from 22) because they beat a good UFDFG team.  And UFDFG is in the six hole (unchanged) because they lost a close one to Texas.  That's not the way it works.  If your priors were that Texas was a 22 ranked team and UFDFG is a 6 ranked team, and UFDFG loses to Texas, it means that it is due to some combination of Texas being better than expected and/or UFDFG being worse than expected.  That means that you might raise Texas to the top-10, but you don't leave UFDFG at #6.  Part of what gets you to a preseason #6 is that there is uncertainty behind that number.  You might be better than a #6, you might be worse than a #6, but on average a #6 ranking is reasonable.  When you lose to a team, even a team that might have been better than you thought, some of that uncertainty is removed.  So, while UFDFG still might be as good as a #6 team, it is unlikely to be much better than #6 (or it would have beaten Texas), and there is a chance that it is worse (maybe substantially worse, if Texas doesn't prove worthy of the #2 ranking).

I think Texas did enough to move into the top 10.  It might even now be the favorite to win the BIg12, especially since Oklahoma lost.  But at the same time, I think UFDFG showed enough vulnerabilities that you would move it out of the top-10.

But logic never really worked with the circular reasoning one.

BC
[/quote]

I also love how Texas A&M is 8 and UCLA is unranked. One undropped pass and the outcome of that game changes. So that one dropped pass is the difference between unranked and #8 in the country??

[2006alum]

[quote author=OutsiderFan link=topic=15599.msg170258#msg170258 date=1473188304]
An AP poll update wouldn't be complete without Jon Wilner's unique rankings...
http://collegefootball.ap.org/poll-voter/jon-wilner

Indeed.  We might call him John "Circular Reasoning" Wilner:

http://blogs.mercurynews.com/collegespor...-ballot-6/

So Texas is in the #2 spot (up from 22) because they beat a good UFDFG team.  And UFDFG is in the six hole (unchanged) because they lost a close one to Texas.  That's not the way it works.  If your priors were that Texas was a 22 ranked team and UFDFG is a 6 ranked team, and UFDFG loses to Texas, it means that it is due to some combination of Texas being better than expected and/or UFDFG being worse than expected.  That means that you might raise Texas to the top-10, but you don't leave UFDFG at #6.  Part of what gets you to a preseason #6 is that there is uncertainty behind that number.  You might be better than a #6, you might be worse than a #6, but on average a #6 ranking is reasonable.  When you lose to a team, even a team that might have been better than you thought, some of that uncertainty is removed.  So, while UFDFG still might be as good as a #6 team, it is unlikely to be much better than #6 (or it would have beaten Texas), and there is a chance that it is worse (maybe substantially worse, if Texas doesn't prove worthy of the #2 ranking).

I think Texas did enough to move into the top 10.  It might even now be the favorite to win the BIg12, especially since Oklahoma lost.  But at the same time, I think UFDFG showed enough vulnerabilities that you would move it out of the top-10.

But logic never really worked with the circular reasoning one.

BC
[/quote]

I also love how Texas A&M is 8 and UCLA is unranked. One undropped pass and the outcome of that game changes. So that one dropped pass is the difference between unranked and #8 in the country??