09-06-2016, 06:57 PM
Also, while starting in week 5 might reduce the influence of pre-season priors, with 15 (I think) serial polls, I think the influence of priors is overstated a bit. Last year, Auburn, Georgia and USC all started the season ranked in the top-10 and ended the season unranked. Conversely, 10 teams who began the season unranked ended the season ranked. We started the season ranked in the bottom-half of the top-25, and ended #3. Nor can you really blame the rankings for not winding up in the playoffs; for that you can blame a brutal game against Northwestern and the hiccup against Oregon. Win one of those two and we are among the final four. Moreover, I think reputation would still play a big role in the initial rankings, no matter when you started them.
There is no perfect system, and no amount of tinkering with the computer algorithms or changing the method of the polling is going to change the fact that it is difficult to determine rankings when you have 130 teams playing only 12 - 14 games each, with 8 to 9 of those games being within a closed system (a conference) and relatively few out of conference games matching teams of relatively similar quality. Then there is the fact that chance is underrated as a factor that affects the results. Even with the playoffs, I would guess that there is some uncertainty (in a mathematical sense) that the system determined the "best" team.
Instead of trying to get the optimum system, I suggest we enjoy football for what it is, a chance for thousands of like-minded fans to root for a team the best they can, enjoying gorgeous Saturday afternoons or evenings in one of the most beautiful locations in the country, or having unprecedented access to watching their team from far away in a picture of unprecedented quality. It has never been a better time to be a college football fan than today.
Screw the rankings!
BC
There is no perfect system, and no amount of tinkering with the computer algorithms or changing the method of the polling is going to change the fact that it is difficult to determine rankings when you have 130 teams playing only 12 - 14 games each, with 8 to 9 of those games being within a closed system (a conference) and relatively few out of conference games matching teams of relatively similar quality. Then there is the fact that chance is underrated as a factor that affects the results. Even with the playoffs, I would guess that there is some uncertainty (in a mathematical sense) that the system determined the "best" team.
Instead of trying to get the optimum system, I suggest we enjoy football for what it is, a chance for thousands of like-minded fans to root for a team the best they can, enjoying gorgeous Saturday afternoons or evenings in one of the most beautiful locations in the country, or having unprecedented access to watching their team from far away in a picture of unprecedented quality. It has never been a better time to be a college football fan than today.
Screw the rankings!
BC