(09-06-2016, 05:17 PM)Boston Card link Wrote:Here's the thing that makes no sense. Although I don't think it makes sense to throw away your priors (pre-season expectations) after only a game, I can respect trying to make the season rankings based on results and willing to adjust quickly to new data (and WIlner is willing to do this). The issue is that is not what he is doing.Â
To be fair to Mr. Wilner, he does not say he ranks solely on results once the season starts; he acknowledges his rankings are a blend of priors and results, with priors losing influence as results shed more light on more teams. As he began his column, "It plays off my preseason ballot, which was a projection of how everything will shake out, and makes adjustments based on results where applicable.  There have been several major changes, but the ballot cannot be wholly results-oriented because not every team played a meaningful opponent. . . .It will be several weeks before we have enough quality games to compile a ballot that's completely based on results." That seems correct to me; I don't see any reasonable alternative.