[CrazedZooChimp]

[quote author=stupac2 link=topic=15920.msg176285#msg176285 date=1476735148]
[quote author=DC 86 link=topic=15920.msg176277#msg176277 date=1476732357]The problem with Sagarin's (and others') predictive models is primarily that they are purely statistical with no adjustments for factors that may have distorted previous results (e.g. lucky plays, officiating errors, personnel changes) or will impact future results (e.g. injuries, weather conditions).

Well, sure, but really the problem is that you can't perfectly predict the world, and college football is a subset of the world. There are systems that do a better or lesser job, but there's not really any way to talk sensibly about the metagame without relying on analytics like these.
[/quote]

Absolutely, statistical analysis is the starting point for any retrodictive or predictive effort. My point is that betting line movements are much more reliable than purely statistical models, in the same way that prediction markets have generally proven to be more accurate than even the most sophisticated political polls.
[/quote]

Well, as I said, in this case the betting line is almost exactly identical to Sagarin's predictor line, so maybe his method is working here...

[CrazedZooChimp]

[quote author=stupac2 link=topic=15920.msg176285#msg176285 date=1476735148]
[quote author=DC 86 link=topic=15920.msg176277#msg176277 date=1476732357]The problem with Sagarin's (and others') predictive models is primarily that they are purely statistical with no adjustments for factors that may have distorted previous results (e.g. lucky plays, officiating errors, personnel changes) or will impact future results (e.g. injuries, weather conditions).

Well, sure, but really the problem is that you can't perfectly predict the world, and college football is a subset of the world. There are systems that do a better or lesser job, but there's not really any way to talk sensibly about the metagame without relying on analytics like these.
[/quote]

Absolutely, statistical analysis is the starting point for any retrodictive or predictive effort. My point is that betting line movements are much more reliable than purely statistical models, in the same way that prediction markets have generally proven to be more accurate than even the most sophisticated political polls.
[/quote]

Well, as I said, in this case the betting line is almost exactly identical to Sagarin's predictor line, so maybe his method is working here...