[DC 86]

If Kizer is the next Tyrod Taylor (and drafted in the 3rd round or later), a team will be happy. However, if he's a first rounder, the team who drafts Kizer will want more than the "next Tyrod".

These are the quarterbacks drafted in the first round in the last ten years:

Vince Young
Matt Leinart
Jay Cutler
Jamarcus Russell
Brady Quinn
Matt Ryan
Joe Flacco
Matthew Stafford
Mark Sanchez
Josh Freeman
Sam Bradford
Tim Tebow
Cam Newton
Jake Locker
Blaine Gabbert
Christian Ponder
Andrew Luck
Robert Griffin
Ryan Tannehill
Brandon Weeden
EJ Manuel
Blake Bortles
Johnny Manziel
Teddy Bridgewater
James Winston
Marcus Mariota
Jared Goff
Carson Wentz
Paxton Lynch

Total: 29

Starters: 12
In the League: 10
Out of the League: 7

Realistically a team should be extremely happy to draft a QB in the first round who becomes an established starter, particularly if drafted after the very early part of the first round (9 of the 12 first rounders who started this past weekend were among the top 3 overall picks).

Tyrod Taylor has been in the top ten in total QBR since he became a starter; I don't think he is a top-ten quarterback but he did sign a $92 million contract and he is the entrenched starter for a winning team.

We (and NFL teams for that matter) tend to think that first round quarterbacks should become pro bowlers, but that's far from the usual result. A team drafting in the first round may "want more than the next Tyrod" but they are more likely to end up with Christian Ponder or Brady Quinn than they are even a Blake Bortles. A first round pick who reaches Taylor's level is an above expectation result.

[DC 86]

If Kizer is the next Tyrod Taylor (and drafted in the 3rd round or later), a team will be happy. However, if he's a first rounder, the team who drafts Kizer will want more than the "next Tyrod".

These are the quarterbacks drafted in the first round in the last ten years:

Vince Young
Matt Leinart
Jay Cutler
Jamarcus Russell
Brady Quinn
Matt Ryan
Joe Flacco
Matthew Stafford
Mark Sanchez
Josh Freeman
Sam Bradford
Tim Tebow
Cam Newton
Jake Locker
Blaine Gabbert
Christian Ponder
Andrew Luck
Robert Griffin
Ryan Tannehill
Brandon Weeden
EJ Manuel
Blake Bortles
Johnny Manziel
Teddy Bridgewater
James Winston
Marcus Mariota
Jared Goff
Carson Wentz
Paxton Lynch

Total: 29

Starters: 12
In the League: 10
Out of the League: 7

Realistically a team should be extremely happy to draft a QB in the first round who becomes an established starter, particularly if drafted after the very early part of the first round (9 of the 12 first rounders who started this past weekend were among the top 3 overall picks).

Tyrod Taylor has been in the top ten in total QBR since he became a starter; I don't think he is a top-ten quarterback but he did sign a $92 million contract and he is the entrenched starter for a winning team.

We (and NFL teams for that matter) tend to think that first round quarterbacks should become pro bowlers, but that's far from the usual result. A team drafting in the first round may "want more than the next Tyrod" but they are more likely to end up with Christian Ponder or Brady Quinn than they are even a Blake Bortles. A first round pick who reaches Taylor's level is an above expectation result.