10-30-2016, 02:13 PM
(10-30-2016, 01:29 PM)Yvonne link Wrote:I agree that it was a mistake not to have signed a quarterback that year, but Burns, and especially Chryst were also highly rated. I think the issue is development and having game experience as backups.
Well, my point is it's not unusual to see two highly ranked quarterbacks do not-so-well. It is much more unusual to see three. Here's a shorthand -- some guy calculated the odds of recruits of a given ranking going to the pros: http://mgoblog.com/diaries/5-stars-first...ecruit-pro
Both Chryst and Burns were 4-star players, meaning they each only had a 21% chance of going pro. So about a 49% chance that both aren't of pro quality. Adding a third four-star-quality player lowers the odds to 38%.
Of course I've considered a slightly different question than "what are the odds of getting at least one competent QB" -- assuming you believe both Chryst and Burns aren't salvageable at all, under any circumstances* -- but I think my point still stands. I think we see this play out all the time. Alabama's Cooper Bateman and Blake Barnett are both meh. Good thing they have Jalen Hurts. And so on.
* (I don't necessarily agree. I think Burns was competent enough when the line was playing solidly -- i.e. in the first two games in the season -- and so I don't agree he's a complete failure. Of course he's by no means good and can't rescue a bad situation, such as the one the team finds itself in currently. But that's not quite the same as declaring him a failure in almost all applicable circumstances, the way we might suspect, say -- sorry to dump on him as a scapegoat, but -- Jordan Perez is.)
