[CTcard]

FWIW gostanford.com also says Sun Bowl most likely. May just be reading Wilner; who knows.

Stanford has won every regular-season finale since 2008 and is 6-0 in such contests under Shaw. The Cardinal advances to a bowl for a school-record eighth consecutive season and will learn its assignment – most likely the Sun Bowl on Dec. 30 in El Paso, but with the Foster Farms, Holiday, and Las Vegas bowls in the running as well.

http://www.gostanford.com/news/2016/11/2...dinal.aspx

While I certainly cannot tell how they came to claim the Sun Bowl is the most likely, it kind of reads to me that they simply noted Stanford finished with the fifth best conference record and the Sun Bowl is nominally fifth in the Pac 12 bowl pecking order. Though I suppose it is possible that they know something about actual negotiations.

Given that it looks at least likely that the Pac 12 gets two New Year's Six participants, that nominally moves everyone up one, and the Foster Farms Bowl would be the slotted bowl for Stanford.

Most of these complex analysis of which teams which bowls would prefer are just talking points for fans and columnists before any real information emerges. The one issue that the lesser bowls do clearly care about is not liking repeat attendees.  [Take note that many (non-Pac 12) conferences have bowl agreements where the conferences get to make the choices rather than the bowls, and the one restriction concerns limited-repeat clauses.]

The biggest relevant repeater teams would be:
Alamo - none
Holiday - U$C past two years
Foster Farms - Stanford two years ago
Sun  - WSU last year
Las Vegas - Utah last two years
Cactus Bowl - won't fill the slot unless a miracle happens for cal.

So, if UW wins the championship I'd guess:
CFP - UW
Rose - U$C
Alamo - Colorado
Holiday - WSU
Foster Farms - Stanford
Sun - Utah


* Though the CFP committee does have a bit of a track record of not dropping championship game losers much.
**I could see the Holiday opting for us over WSU due to a better overall record and higher ranking. And perhaps the Foster Farms would lobby for the same to avoid the sort-of repeat. Of course if it came to it, Foster Farms might opt for Utah over us but I'd be surprised if they'd really want a team with a worse record, worse conference record, and finishing on a two game losing streak.

[CTcard]

FWIW gostanford.com also says Sun Bowl most likely. May just be reading Wilner; who knows.

Stanford has won every regular-season finale since 2008 and is 6-0 in such contests under Shaw. The Cardinal advances to a bowl for a school-record eighth consecutive season and will learn its assignment – most likely the Sun Bowl on Dec. 30 in El Paso, but with the Foster Farms, Holiday, and Las Vegas bowls in the running as well.

http://www.gostanford.com/news/2016/11/2...dinal.aspx

While I certainly cannot tell how they came to claim the Sun Bowl is the most likely, it kind of reads to me that they simply noted Stanford finished with the fifth best conference record and the Sun Bowl is nominally fifth in the Pac 12 bowl pecking order. Though I suppose it is possible that they know something about actual negotiations.

Given that it looks at least likely that the Pac 12 gets two New Year's Six participants, that nominally moves everyone up one, and the Foster Farms Bowl would be the slotted bowl for Stanford.

Most of these complex analysis of which teams which bowls would prefer are just talking points for fans and columnists before any real information emerges. The one issue that the lesser bowls do clearly care about is not liking repeat attendees.  [Take note that many (non-Pac 12) conferences have bowl agreements where the conferences get to make the choices rather than the bowls, and the one restriction concerns limited-repeat clauses.]

The biggest relevant repeater teams would be:
Alamo - none
Holiday - U$C past two years
Foster Farms - Stanford two years ago
Sun  - WSU last year
Las Vegas - Utah last two years
Cactus Bowl - won't fill the slot unless a miracle happens for cal.

So, if UW wins the championship I'd guess:
CFP - UW
Rose - U$C
Alamo - Colorado
Holiday - WSU
Foster Farms - Stanford
Sun - Utah


* Though the CFP committee does have a bit of a track record of not dropping championship game losers much.
**I could see the Holiday opting for us over WSU due to a better overall record and higher ranking. And perhaps the Foster Farms would lobby for the same to avoid the sort-of repeat. Of course if it came to it, Foster Farms might opt for Utah over us but I'd be surprised if they'd really want a team with a worse record, worse conference record, and finishing on a two game losing streak.