[stupac2]

Tangentially related, but fivethirtyeight calculates teams' probabilities of making the college football playoffs.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016...id=rrpromo

You can click or unclick whether they win or lose their next game to see how it impacts their probabilities.  Right now UW has a 66% chance of making the playoffs.  That rises to 95% if they win their P12 Championship game against Colorado (they are given a 68% chance of winning).

Even if Penn State wins the BigTen championship, Ohio State has a higher chance of going to the playoff.

BC

The problem with their model is that they're trying to model something when we don't know the parameters. Originally it was based on movement in the Coaches' poll, but they've tweaked it based on the committee polls we've had since. Of course, this gives us essentially no information on how to rate OSU's chances, they're in a situation that hasn't happened during the previous two years. The committee explicitly gives weight to conference championships, but we don't really know how much since it hasn't mattered.

You could argue that there's information in the way they've treated the one conference winner left out so far, but I'm not sure since once you're past 4 the rankings don't really matter. In 2014 there was the whole "Big 12 doesn't really have a winner" fiasco, but they were still #5 and #6, and last year Iowa was ranked ahead of us, but like I said I'm not sure they were really the first one out. If all the favorites win, which is always a big if, then I don't really see how you pass over anyone to put OSU in. Every other candidate would have the same number of wins, a similar SOS, and would actually have won their conference. And it's not like OSU is playing like a world-beater team who just got unlucky, they've gone to OT twice and have had close games against some bad teams.

I'm really curious to see what happens. I really hope that OSU gets left out and think they will (barring upsets, if Colorado or VT win then I don't know), but I seem to be the only person who thinks they're not a lock.

[stupac2]

Tangentially related, but fivethirtyeight calculates teams' probabilities of making the college football playoffs.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016...id=rrpromo

You can click or unclick whether they win or lose their next game to see how it impacts their probabilities.  Right now UW has a 66% chance of making the playoffs.  That rises to 95% if they win their P12 Championship game against Colorado (they are given a 68% chance of winning).

Even if Penn State wins the BigTen championship, Ohio State has a higher chance of going to the playoff.

BC

The problem with their model is that they're trying to model something when we don't know the parameters. Originally it was based on movement in the Coaches' poll, but they've tweaked it based on the committee polls we've had since. Of course, this gives us essentially no information on how to rate OSU's chances, they're in a situation that hasn't happened during the previous two years. The committee explicitly gives weight to conference championships, but we don't really know how much since it hasn't mattered.

You could argue that there's information in the way they've treated the one conference winner left out so far, but I'm not sure since once you're past 4 the rankings don't really matter. In 2014 there was the whole "Big 12 doesn't really have a winner" fiasco, but they were still #5 and #6, and last year Iowa was ranked ahead of us, but like I said I'm not sure they were really the first one out. If all the favorites win, which is always a big if, then I don't really see how you pass over anyone to put OSU in. Every other candidate would have the same number of wins, a similar SOS, and would actually have won their conference. And it's not like OSU is playing like a world-beater team who just got unlucky, they've gone to OT twice and have had close games against some bad teams.

I'm really curious to see what happens. I really hope that OSU gets left out and think they will (barring upsets, if Colorado or VT win then I don't know), but I seem to be the only person who thinks they're not a lock.