[BigEasyCard]

Nobody is mentioning, unless I missed it, the loss of the coin toss in OT. Brady knew that the Falcons were shell shocked and went through them like Crazy Horse went through the Seventh. The only chance was to win the toss and find Jones and Hooper.

According to this site, the winner of the toss wins NFL overtime games about 54% of the time:

http://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2015/12/29/1...ck-receive

Interestingly, in college overtime, the team winning the toss (and choosing defense) wins about 55% of the time.  Here's a link: https://www.researchgate.net/publication...time_Games

While the preferred strategy differs between the NFL and the NCAA, the win probabilities for the preferred strategies are similar.  Before I searched for the above statistics, I expected that the coin toss winner would have a significantly higher win probability in the NFL than college because the NFL system doesn't guarantee a possession to the loser of the coin toss.

Geaux Cardinal!

[BigEasyCard]

Nobody is mentioning, unless I missed it, the loss of the coin toss in OT. Brady knew that the Falcons were shell shocked and went through them like Crazy Horse went through the Seventh. The only chance was to win the toss and find Jones and Hooper.

According to this site, the winner of the toss wins NFL overtime games about 54% of the time:

http://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2015/12/29/1...ck-receive

Interestingly, in college overtime, the team winning the toss (and choosing defense) wins about 55% of the time.  Here's a link: https://www.researchgate.net/publication...time_Games

While the preferred strategy differs between the NFL and the NCAA, the win probabilities for the preferred strategies are similar.  Before I searched for the above statistics, I expected that the coin toss winner would have a significantly higher win probability in the NFL than college because the NFL system doesn't guarantee a possession to the loser of the coin toss.

Geaux Cardinal!