[Goose]

Goose: Every year we play some teams that are good against the run, and others that have weak run defenses.  The reason we look at full season stats is that over the course of the year it averages out.

Yes, the average over an entire season averages out  ;D. However, we aren't dealing with independent measurements of a "signal" corrupted by noise.  The "signal" against Washington had a much different value than against Rice. The average of quantities that are differently distributed is not real meaningful.

Plus, it's not like McCaffrey sucked running the ball before the "easy" part of the schedule. Yes, McCaffrey averaged 7.5 ypc in November,  his average in August/September (5.3 ypc) and October (5.7 ypc) was better than Tyler Gaffney in 2013 (5.2 ypc), Stepfan Taylor in 2012 (4.75 ypc) and 2010 (5.1 ypc), and is comparable to Toby Gerhart in 2008 (5.4 ypc) and 2009 (5.5 ypc) and Taylor in 2011 (5.5 ypc).

True. McCaffrey averaged 4.0 ypc in the game against Washington. And we got killed. I guess I must be arguing that ypc may not be a really great indicator of actual performance. I am also not saying it was CMAC's "fault" we got beat. What I am saying is that against Washington, Washington State, and Colorado, our OL was basically unable to control the point of attack. As a result, any rush yards we got were the result of the back's somehow beating a defender, not the play operating as designed.  In the period from 2008 to the present, I don't think I have seen that before, with the possible exception of Michigan State in the Rose Bowl. During this period, we have lost some games, but it never seemed that we were always losing the battle on the OL. Sometimes we did, sometimes we didn't, but it wasn't an exercise in futility. When we lost, it usually "felt like" we beat ourselves.  We may have got a lot of holding penalties, or some lineman would block the wrong guy, but it didn't seem we were just unable to ever dictate the action on the LOS. This year, in these three games, it seemed like we were getting beat on the line basically every time. Now, this is a subjective argument in some sense. We have had "bad" rushing games before. However, these "bad" games seemed to be more mental errors and lack of execution as opposed to physically unable.
In previous years, particularly against teams that were "good", our strategy was to run the ball, wear down the opposing defense, shorten the game, and win a "boring" contest. We can't do that if we can't reliably run the ball, and in 2016, we couldn't reliably run the ball against the teams that beat us. We have lost games against "good" teams who could overcome our strategy by just scoring more than our conservative game plan could, but at least we could execute the game plan. In 2016, we couldn't.
I could also point out that against Washington, our combined "ypc" was 1.0, but that includes sacks, of which there were many. I am also quite aware, as the coaches have stated, that our pass blocking also was very unsatisfactory in 2016. I do however think that there was a big problem with our run blocking, especially given our conservative strategy. I am pretty sure the coaching staff is very aware of that fact, and will not neglect this issue. At least, I hope they don't!

although McCaffrey is a unique talent, Bryce Love actually had a better yards per carry year.

BC

True, but CMAC averaged 7.1 his Freshman year. Not sure that means much though, as it isn't a big number of touches. BL did have quite a few last year however. He is a talented guy for sure.

[Goose]

Goose: Every year we play some teams that are good against the run, and others that have weak run defenses.  The reason we look at full season stats is that over the course of the year it averages out.

Yes, the average over an entire season averages out  ;D. However, we aren't dealing with independent measurements of a "signal" corrupted by noise.  The "signal" against Washington had a much different value than against Rice. The average of quantities that are differently distributed is not real meaningful.

Plus, it's not like McCaffrey sucked running the ball before the "easy" part of the schedule. Yes, McCaffrey averaged 7.5 ypc in November,  his average in August/September (5.3 ypc) and October (5.7 ypc) was better than Tyler Gaffney in 2013 (5.2 ypc), Stepfan Taylor in 2012 (4.75 ypc) and 2010 (5.1 ypc), and is comparable to Toby Gerhart in 2008 (5.4 ypc) and 2009 (5.5 ypc) and Taylor in 2011 (5.5 ypc).

True. McCaffrey averaged 4.0 ypc in the game against Washington. And we got killed. I guess I must be arguing that ypc may not be a really great indicator of actual performance. I am also not saying it was CMAC's "fault" we got beat. What I am saying is that against Washington, Washington State, and Colorado, our OL was basically unable to control the point of attack. As a result, any rush yards we got were the result of the back's somehow beating a defender, not the play operating as designed.  In the period from 2008 to the present, I don't think I have seen that before, with the possible exception of Michigan State in the Rose Bowl. During this period, we have lost some games, but it never seemed that we were always losing the battle on the OL. Sometimes we did, sometimes we didn't, but it wasn't an exercise in futility. When we lost, it usually "felt like" we beat ourselves.  We may have got a lot of holding penalties, or some lineman would block the wrong guy, but it didn't seem we were just unable to ever dictate the action on the LOS. This year, in these three games, it seemed like we were getting beat on the line basically every time. Now, this is a subjective argument in some sense. We have had "bad" rushing games before. However, these "bad" games seemed to be more mental errors and lack of execution as opposed to physically unable.
In previous years, particularly against teams that were "good", our strategy was to run the ball, wear down the opposing defense, shorten the game, and win a "boring" contest. We can't do that if we can't reliably run the ball, and in 2016, we couldn't reliably run the ball against the teams that beat us. We have lost games against "good" teams who could overcome our strategy by just scoring more than our conservative game plan could, but at least we could execute the game plan. In 2016, we couldn't.
I could also point out that against Washington, our combined "ypc" was 1.0, but that includes sacks, of which there were many. I am also quite aware, as the coaches have stated, that our pass blocking also was very unsatisfactory in 2016. I do however think that there was a big problem with our run blocking, especially given our conservative strategy. I am pretty sure the coaching staff is very aware of that fact, and will not neglect this issue. At least, I hope they don't!

although McCaffrey is a unique talent, Bryce Love actually had a better yards per carry year.

BC

True, but CMAC averaged 7.1 his Freshman year. Not sure that means much though, as it isn't a big number of touches. BL did have quite a few last year however. He is a talented guy for sure.