03-24-2017, 06:24 AM
(03-23-2017, 01:47 PM)Mick link Wrote:There are nine Pac-12 softball teams. Six of them are in the top 25, ×ÉÉ is #26. Only Stanford and Oregon State are unranked. Here's the current pac-12 rankings and records. I don't see Hanson doing well here.
Oregon, #3 (27-0)
Arizona, #5 (29-1)
Washington, #6 (24-3)
Utah, #11 (21-4)
UCLA, #15 (21-8)
Arizona State, #21 (19-8)
×ÉÉ, #26 (17-8)
Stanford, unranked,(16-10)
Oregon State, unranked, (15-11)
Call me (optimistically) crazy, but I think Hanson over the upcoming 24 just might elevate this team to the 5-win level reached by the crippled Rittman team of 2014.
Here is what my crystal ball is telling me:
                                  5-19
I break it down like this:Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
| TEAMS | Â Â Â Â Â COMBINED # OF GAMES TO BE PLAYED | Â Â Â Â Â WINS |
| Oregon-Arizona | Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 6 | Â Â Â Â Â Â "1/4"Â Â Â (0 or 1, more likely 0) |
| Washington-Utah | Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 6 | Â Â Â Â Â Â "3/4"Â Â Â (0 or 1, more likely 1) |
| UCLA-Cal-AZ State | Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 9 | Â Â Â Â Â "2 1/2"Â Â (2 or 3, equally likely) |
| Oregon State | Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 3 | Â Â Â Â Â "1 1/2"Â Â (1 or 2, equally likely) |
| TOTAL | Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 24 | Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 5 |
If it turns out, however, that the wins total falls a good bit short of my calculated guess (as low as, say, 2 or 3 wins) I won't be *absolutely shocked*. Much depends in particular on how steep the inevitable drop-off in team hitting proves to be in the nonconference to conference play transition (not sure, but I think the '16 team finished with a sub-.200 BA in Pac-12 play) and I see that as a big question mark. Should that (20+ losses) occur, expect to see some speculative second-guessing pertaining to the question of whether or not the scheduling of so soft a nonconference lineup of opponents left the team impactfully (ultimately, in the W/L column) less prepared for Pac-12 play than it could have been, should have been.