[Owen Tufornomor]

I also had 5 wins as my most optimistic estimate. I think a performance mirroring 2015's conference record (2-22, with wins over Utah and Arizona State at home) is more likely. Two points to consider: 1) Because of our non-conference schedule, we haven't beaten an RPI Top 50 squad this year (0-4 record). Everyone in the Pac-12, aside from Oregon State (at #53), is a Top 50 team. Therefore, it is hard for me to predict wins over Top 50 squads when we currently haven't done it yet. 2) Coach Hanson, in her tenure, has not won a single road Pac-12 game (0-24 record). As such, I think your Oregon State projection is optimistic. I definitely think we could steal a game, but I do not think a road series win is likely.

Call me (optimistically) crazy--again--but ... invite me to wager on the probability that Stanford's 27-game nonconference losing streak will fail to survive the weekend (3/25-3/27) and I will kiss the dice and roll 'em (see www.dailycal.org/2017/03/24/no-23-cal-softball-seeks-offensive-revival-home-series-stanford). And should I bring home the booty, well, so much for Owen Tufor (0-24) the sequel. (Although seemingly quite a longshot, neither do I find the possibility of Stanford actually winning this series absolutely inconceivable.)

Re: your point #1, one must acknowledge that 4 games is a quite tiny data sample upon which to predict future outcomes. It takes but a li'l bit of fudging (or slight difference of opinion) and then you have 24 Top 50 opponents lying in wait. What does an 0-4 record compiled thus far against Top 50s suggest regarding what will be the results of those 24 contests? Not much, insofar as it gives little, if any, clue regarding whether total wins ultimately will lie closer to 2 or to 5. A team ultimately bound for a 5-19 finish could easily sport an 0-4 record early on.

Re: your point #2, while Hanson indeed has been shut out in road wins, she also has barely touched the win column at home. There is insufficient data from which any reasonably firm notion can be drawn regarding how much of a home field advantage, if any, Stanford may enjoy for any particular home game or series. Most probably an advantage of some measure does exist; however, I think you overestimate its value. For example, a win over Utah at home? I have my doubts. Big ones. I see the Stanford home field advantage (presuming its existence) versus Utah's 1.15 team ERA as a pretty merciless matchup for Stanford. That weekend could prove to be downright brutal from start to finish.

[Owen Tufornomor]

I also had 5 wins as my most optimistic estimate. I think a performance mirroring 2015's conference record (2-22, with wins over Utah and Arizona State at home) is more likely. Two points to consider: 1) Because of our non-conference schedule, we haven't beaten an RPI Top 50 squad this year (0-4 record). Everyone in the Pac-12, aside from Oregon State (at #53), is a Top 50 team. Therefore, it is hard for me to predict wins over Top 50 squads when we currently haven't done it yet. 2) Coach Hanson, in her tenure, has not won a single road Pac-12 game (0-24 record). As such, I think your Oregon State projection is optimistic. I definitely think we could steal a game, but I do not think a road series win is likely.

Call me (optimistically) crazy--again--but ... invite me to wager on the probability that Stanford's 27-game nonconference losing streak will fail to survive the weekend (3/25-3/27) and I will kiss the dice and roll 'em (see www.dailycal.org/2017/03/24/no-23-cal-softball-seeks-offensive-revival-home-series-stanford). And should I bring home the booty, well, so much for Owen Tufor (0-24) the sequel. (Although seemingly quite a longshot, neither do I find the possibility of Stanford actually winning this series absolutely inconceivable.)

Re: your point #1, one must acknowledge that 4 games is a quite tiny data sample upon which to predict future outcomes. It takes but a li'l bit of fudging (or slight difference of opinion) and then you have 24 Top 50 opponents lying in wait. What does an 0-4 record compiled thus far against Top 50s suggest regarding what will be the results of those 24 contests? Not much, insofar as it gives little, if any, clue regarding whether total wins ultimately will lie closer to 2 or to 5. A team ultimately bound for a 5-19 finish could easily sport an 0-4 record early on.

Re: your point #2, while Hanson indeed has been shut out in road wins, she also has barely touched the win column at home. There is insufficient data from which any reasonably firm notion can be drawn regarding how much of a home field advantage, if any, Stanford may enjoy for any particular home game or series. Most probably an advantage of some measure does exist; however, I think you overestimate its value. For example, a win over Utah at home? I have my doubts. Big ones. I see the Stanford home field advantage (presuming its existence) versus Utah's 1.15 team ERA as a pretty merciless matchup for Stanford. That weekend could prove to be downright brutal from start to finish.