[d4cohn]

Re: your point #1, one must acknowledge that 4 games is a quite tiny data sample upon which to predict future outcomes.

I agree that 4 games, especially in softball, is a tiny sample size. However, three of those games were a 24-8 blowout loss to Fresno St., a 4-0 loss to Alabama in which we struck out 18 times and were totally dominated offensively, and an 8-2 loss to Florida State in which FSU left 13 runners on base. I should have clarified my point to say that not only are we 0-4 against Top 50 competition, aside from Cal Poly, we have also not been very competitive against Top 50 competition. Nevertheless, I still think we can pick up a few Top 50 wins over the course of conference play.

Re: your point #2, while Hanson indeed has been shut out in road wins, she also has barely touched the win column at home. There is insufficient data from which any reasonably firm notion can be drawn regarding how much of a home field advantage, if any, Stanford may enjoy for any particular home game or series. Most probably an advantage of some measure does exist; however, I think you overestimate its value. For example, a win over Utah at home? I have my doubts. Big ones. I see the Stanford home field advantage (presuming its existence) versus Utah's 1.15 team ERA as a pretty merciless matchup for Stanford. That weekend could prove to be downright brutal from start to finish.

My point regarding home vs. road wins was similar to my Top 50 point: until Coach Hanson picks up a road win, it is simply hard for me to predict with confidence that she is going to pick up multiple road wins in a series. But I agree, Utah will be a really tough matchup. However, I think we have a better chance against Utah at home, then Washington on the road, per your original table.

I will be interested to see your 2000-word case to Bernard, Owen. Despite any disagreements, I respect your analysis and breakdown of the upcoming conference season.

[d4cohn]

Re: your point #1, one must acknowledge that 4 games is a quite tiny data sample upon which to predict future outcomes.

I agree that 4 games, especially in softball, is a tiny sample size. However, three of those games were a 24-8 blowout loss to Fresno St., a 4-0 loss to Alabama in which we struck out 18 times and were totally dominated offensively, and an 8-2 loss to Florida State in which FSU left 13 runners on base. I should have clarified my point to say that not only are we 0-4 against Top 50 competition, aside from Cal Poly, we have also not been very competitive against Top 50 competition. Nevertheless, I still think we can pick up a few Top 50 wins over the course of conference play.

Re: your point #2, while Hanson indeed has been shut out in road wins, she also has barely touched the win column at home. There is insufficient data from which any reasonably firm notion can be drawn regarding how much of a home field advantage, if any, Stanford may enjoy for any particular home game or series. Most probably an advantage of some measure does exist; however, I think you overestimate its value. For example, a win over Utah at home? I have my doubts. Big ones. I see the Stanford home field advantage (presuming its existence) versus Utah's 1.15 team ERA as a pretty merciless matchup for Stanford. That weekend could prove to be downright brutal from start to finish.

My point regarding home vs. road wins was similar to my Top 50 point: until Coach Hanson picks up a road win, it is simply hard for me to predict with confidence that she is going to pick up multiple road wins in a series. But I agree, Utah will be a really tough matchup. However, I think we have a better chance against Utah at home, then Washington on the road, per your original table.

I will be interested to see your 2000-word case to Bernard, Owen. Despite any disagreements, I respect your analysis and breakdown of the upcoming conference season.