(08-14-2017, 09:02 AM)CTcard link Wrote:Generally, if I were to bet I would take the points in games where Stanford is a big favourite. Shaw tends to go to extremes to run clock, shut down the offense, and clear the bench when Stanford has a comfortable lead. That tends to lead to smaller margins of victory than expected from simple evaluations of team quality.
The logic is intuitive and sound, but results have been the exact opposite. The following are those games where Stanford has been favored by 17+ points during the David Shaw (as head coach) era, 2011-2016:
[Season/Opponent/Point Spread/Score/win or loss vs spread; source: Oddshark.com database]
2014 vs UC Davis, -43.5, 45-0 (win)
2016 vs Rice, -34, 41-17 (loss)
2013 vs Cal, -31.5, 63-13 (win)
2013 vs Army, -30.5, 34-20 (loss)
2011 vs San Jose State, -30, 57-3 (win)
2014 vs Army, -29.5, 35-0 (win)
2011 vs Colorado, -29, 48-7 (win)
2012 vs Colorado, -27.5, 48-0 (win)
2012 vs San Jose State, -26.5, 20-17 (loss)
2012 vs WSU, -25.5, 24-17 (loss)
2013 vs San Jose State, -24.5, 34-13 (loss)
2011 vs UCLA, -23, 45-19 (win)
2011 vs Duke -20.5, 44-14 (win)
2011 vs Oregon State, -20.5, 38-13 (win)
2015 vs Central Florida, -20.5, 31-7 (win)
2011 vs WSU, -20, 44-14 (win)
2011 vs Washington, -18, 65-21 (win)
2011 vs Cal, -17.5, 31-28 (loss)
2014 vs WSU, -17, 34-17 (-)
Favored by 40+: 1-0 vs spread.
Favored by 30+: 3-2 vs spread.
Favored by 20+: 11-5 vs spread.
In early season games (2011 vs SJS, 2011 vs Duke, 2012 vs SJS, 2012 vs Duke, 2013 vs SJS, 2013 vs Army, 2014 vs UCD, 2014 vs Army, 2015 vs UCF), Stanford is 6-3 vs the spread, so the theory that Stanford will not cover as a result of not opening up the playbook vs early season non-conference opponents also doesn't hold.