[CTcard]

[quote author=CTcard link=topic=17161.msg197145#msg197145 date=1502726561]

Generally, if I were to bet I would take the points in games where Stanford is a big favourite. Shaw tends to go to extremes to run clock, shut down the offense, and clear the bench when Stanford has a comfortable lead. That tends to lead to smaller margins of victory than expected from simple evaluations of team quality.

The logic is intuitive and sound, but results have been the exact opposite. ...
Favored by 40+: 1-0 vs spread.
Favored by 30+: 3-2 vs spread.
Favored by 20+: 11-5 vs spread.
[/quote]

Very interesting. Will have to take that into account in future thoughts and discussions.


... and I never really believed the "close game because of not opening the playbook" thing.

[CTcard]

[quote author=CTcard link=topic=17161.msg197145#msg197145 date=1502726561]

Generally, if I were to bet I would take the points in games where Stanford is a big favourite. Shaw tends to go to extremes to run clock, shut down the offense, and clear the bench when Stanford has a comfortable lead. That tends to lead to smaller margins of victory than expected from simple evaluations of team quality.

The logic is intuitive and sound, but results have been the exact opposite. ...
Favored by 40+: 1-0 vs spread.
Favored by 30+: 3-2 vs spread.
Favored by 20+: 11-5 vs spread.
[/quote]

Very interesting. Will have to take that into account in future thoughts and discussions.


... and I never really believed the "close game because of not opening the playbook" thing.