It's interesting that there's a wide range of predictions here, from a 1 point margin to a 40 point one. I just finished watching the SC-Western Michigan game, and I join the optimistic camp.
I still think SC *could* be a behemoth late in the season, but based on what I saw in weeks 0-1, the stars are looking nicely aligned for Stanford this week.
Some key, mostly favorable matchups:
1) It looks like one of SC's weaknesses is their run defense, and Stanford's run offense looks like it might one of the great ones. The Western Michigan running game got a lot of yards after contact, with rugby scrum-style running, and Stanford is Scrum U. People are talking about Bryce Love, but if Cameron Scarlett is who I think he is this season, this game could be his big introduction to the national stage.
2) I was really impressed with how quickly and decisively Darnold read the defense and pinpointed the point to attack -- it did remind me of Luck. But remember -- Luck was particularly adept at winning the games Stanford should win -- finding the best matchup and target, but the Luck offense could struggle when there was no easy weakness to pinpoint, and that's what I hope Darnold will be facing.
3) Three of SC's starting defensive backs (from their Nickel Package) are listed at 5'11". Stanford's starting tight ends and receivers are 6'2", 6'3", 6'6" and 6'7", with more big bodies in reserve. The height matchups are going to be fun all season, but SC generally seems to lack height in their secondary.
4) In week 1, USC's O Line looked like it's still getting things together, which is fortunate timing for Stanford.
5) SC's defense looks to be in early season SC form, and, as touched upon several times, there's an insane number of permutations Stanford's offense *might* be coming out with, which would be hard to plan for and cover even for an end-of-season, veteran defense. Stanford should be able to put up a lot of points.
6) Western Michigan kept SC's score low for the vast majority of the game. While SC pulled ahead by 18 in the end, by my eyes, it was because Western Michigan just looked gassed.
I think SC scored 21 points in Q1-Q3 because Darnold is very good, because Western Michigan got caught many times by formation shifts (which Stanford should *not* be), because their receivers are athletic and block well, and because sometimes the Western Michigan secondary gave ridiculously large, "gimme" cushions (which I do *not* expect from Stanford's secondary). Late in the game, Western Michigan looked gassed, lost their physical nature, and tackled poorly, which should never apply to the Men in Cardinal.
Stanford 48-USC 28
I still think SC *could* be a behemoth late in the season, but based on what I saw in weeks 0-1, the stars are looking nicely aligned for Stanford this week.
Some key, mostly favorable matchups:
1) It looks like one of SC's weaknesses is their run defense, and Stanford's run offense looks like it might one of the great ones. The Western Michigan running game got a lot of yards after contact, with rugby scrum-style running, and Stanford is Scrum U. People are talking about Bryce Love, but if Cameron Scarlett is who I think he is this season, this game could be his big introduction to the national stage.
2) I was really impressed with how quickly and decisively Darnold read the defense and pinpointed the point to attack -- it did remind me of Luck. But remember -- Luck was particularly adept at winning the games Stanford should win -- finding the best matchup and target, but the Luck offense could struggle when there was no easy weakness to pinpoint, and that's what I hope Darnold will be facing.
3) Three of SC's starting defensive backs (from their Nickel Package) are listed at 5'11". Stanford's starting tight ends and receivers are 6'2", 6'3", 6'6" and 6'7", with more big bodies in reserve. The height matchups are going to be fun all season, but SC generally seems to lack height in their secondary.
4) In week 1, USC's O Line looked like it's still getting things together, which is fortunate timing for Stanford.
5) SC's defense looks to be in early season SC form, and, as touched upon several times, there's an insane number of permutations Stanford's offense *might* be coming out with, which would be hard to plan for and cover even for an end-of-season, veteran defense. Stanford should be able to put up a lot of points.
6) Western Michigan kept SC's score low for the vast majority of the game. While SC pulled ahead by 18 in the end, by my eyes, it was because Western Michigan just looked gassed.
I think SC scored 21 points in Q1-Q3 because Darnold is very good, because Western Michigan got caught many times by formation shifts (which Stanford should *not* be), because their receivers are athletic and block well, and because sometimes the Western Michigan secondary gave ridiculously large, "gimme" cushions (which I do *not* expect from Stanford's secondary). Late in the game, Western Michigan looked gassed, lost their physical nature, and tackled poorly, which should never apply to the Men in Cardinal.
Stanford 48-USC 28