[North Woods]

[quote author=Boston Card link=topic=17419.msg201268#msg201268 date=1505698960]
Bryce Love has 43 carries so far this year.  He has 4 runs for 50 yards or more; just about 1 in every 10 times he touches the ball, and he has had at least 1 such run in each game.  He has 9 runs of 20 yards or more; a bit more than once every five times he touches the ball.

At some point, it no longer makes sense to say "without the long runs" because they are not outliers; they are an intrinsic part of his game.

BC

True. But it doesn't help our TOP and sustained drives. A quick TD, while nice, puts our defense right back out there. If it is third and three, by the numbers, we have a 10% chance of a TD, a 10% chance of a first down,  and an 80% chance of punting. That's not going to work.
[/quote]

Yeah that was what I was trying to say. Give him tons of credit for the big plays and he should get more touches than anyone else -- probably by a wide margin. He is performing at an elite level. But in addition to looking at his average per touch the strategy needs to account also for his median touch or other similar stat. If he could reliably pound out 3-4 yards each time he wouldn't necessarily be more valuable overall, but might have gotten touches in situations where yesterday we went with a different option. He's not necessarily seen as a sure thing 3rd (or 4th  >:() and short guy who will definitely get the first down.

[North Woods]

[quote author=Boston Card link=topic=17419.msg201268#msg201268 date=1505698960]
Bryce Love has 43 carries so far this year.  He has 4 runs for 50 yards or more; just about 1 in every 10 times he touches the ball, and he has had at least 1 such run in each game.  He has 9 runs of 20 yards or more; a bit more than once every five times he touches the ball.

At some point, it no longer makes sense to say "without the long runs" because they are not outliers; they are an intrinsic part of his game.

BC

True. But it doesn't help our TOP and sustained drives. A quick TD, while nice, puts our defense right back out there. If it is third and three, by the numbers, we have a 10% chance of a TD, a 10% chance of a first down,  and an 80% chance of punting. That's not going to work.
[/quote]

Yeah that was what I was trying to say. Give him tons of credit for the big plays and he should get more touches than anyone else -- probably by a wide margin. He is performing at an elite level. But in addition to looking at his average per touch the strategy needs to account also for his median touch or other similar stat. If he could reliably pound out 3-4 yards each time he wouldn't necessarily be more valuable overall, but might have gotten touches in situations where yesterday we went with a different option. He's not necessarily seen as a sure thing 3rd (or 4th  >:() and short guy who will definitely get the first down.