10-10-2017, 11:16 AM
Upon further reflection, here are slightly more elaborate thoughts:
1) QBs definitely generally make a difference, and arguing "this" or "that" QB should start is like the ur-sports-debate.
2) That being said, in this *specific* situation it's not entirely clear to me it does. I think the consensus position on boards is that Chryst and Costello performed nearly equivalently against Utah, though Costello was an exciting player against ASU and UCLA. And we think Costello has the higher upside.
2a) Personally, my own druthers would favor Costello in this situation, for reasons of upside alone.
2b) But I think we have to admit it's a closer decision than we make it out to be.
3) It's also unclear to me that QB choice makes a big difference. Currently ESPN's FPI ranks Stanford's offense fifth in the country. Bill Connelly's S&P+ metric says the Cardinal's 8th in the country. Stanford is fourth in yards per play. I'm not sure where this college football podcast got its stats from, but it has Stanford as ranking 9th in points per drive. (https://twitter.com/SolidVerbal/status/9...6526789632)
3a) So debate who deserves credit for what (I mean beyond "Bryce Love"), but clearly the offense is excellent.
3b) The funny thing about excellence is that it's harder to get even more excellent. There might be tight ends better than your Coby Fleener/Zach Ertz/Levine Toilolo, but they are *rare* and the gain is only marginal.
3c) Given the Stanford offense's quality, therefore, it (as a matter of general principle) means that it should be *even harder* to improve the offense than it would be for, say, an average-quality unit. It's already operating at a really high level!
3d) This might indicate that the QB choice is not of great consequence.
4) On the other hand, there are some really obvious deficiencies in Stanford's passing performance -- both by eye and statistically. Whether those problems are with the QB, the receivers, the offensive line - kinda hard to tell.
5) So I think all ideas should be entertained: maybe Costello's better; maybe Chryst's better; maybe a rotation is fine; maybe it doesn't really matter. Who knows!
1) QBs definitely generally make a difference, and arguing "this" or "that" QB should start is like the ur-sports-debate.
2) That being said, in this *specific* situation it's not entirely clear to me it does. I think the consensus position on boards is that Chryst and Costello performed nearly equivalently against Utah, though Costello was an exciting player against ASU and UCLA. And we think Costello has the higher upside.
2a) Personally, my own druthers would favor Costello in this situation, for reasons of upside alone.
2b) But I think we have to admit it's a closer decision than we make it out to be.
3) It's also unclear to me that QB choice makes a big difference. Currently ESPN's FPI ranks Stanford's offense fifth in the country. Bill Connelly's S&P+ metric says the Cardinal's 8th in the country. Stanford is fourth in yards per play. I'm not sure where this college football podcast got its stats from, but it has Stanford as ranking 9th in points per drive. (https://twitter.com/SolidVerbal/status/9...6526789632)
3a) So debate who deserves credit for what (I mean beyond "Bryce Love"), but clearly the offense is excellent.
3b) The funny thing about excellence is that it's harder to get even more excellent. There might be tight ends better than your Coby Fleener/Zach Ertz/Levine Toilolo, but they are *rare* and the gain is only marginal.
3c) Given the Stanford offense's quality, therefore, it (as a matter of general principle) means that it should be *even harder* to improve the offense than it would be for, say, an average-quality unit. It's already operating at a really high level!
3d) This might indicate that the QB choice is not of great consequence.
4) On the other hand, there are some really obvious deficiencies in Stanford's passing performance -- both by eye and statistically. Whether those problems are with the QB, the receivers, the offensive line - kinda hard to tell.
5) So I think all ideas should be entertained: maybe Costello's better; maybe Chryst's better; maybe a rotation is fine; maybe it doesn't really matter. Who knows!