10-10-2017, 04:10 PM
Very good points all, CTCard, as usual.
Rhetorical question... could him tearing his ACL in the final game last season have played a role in his regression?
I don't buy the idea that Chryst is necessarily closer to his ceiling than Costello. Andrew Luck made a big jump in efficiency after a season with the offense:
2009 56% completion, PER of 143
2010 71% completion, PER of 170
Kevin Hogan made an even bigger jump in efficiency, but it was after two and a half seasons running the offense:
2014 7.9 ypa, PER of 145
2015 9.4 ypa, PER of 171
Both players saw a > 25 point improvement in PER. Chryst has 9 complete games under his belt. His combined stats from last year and this are:
2016 77/136, 56.6%, 905 yards, 6.7 ypa, 10 TD, 2 INT, PER 133.8
2017 47/89, 52.8%, 640 yards, 7.19 ypa, 4 TD, 2 INT, PER 124.5
total 124/225 (55.1%), 1545 yrds 6.9 ypa, 14 TD, 4 INT, PER 129.8
Chryst is starting from a lower baseline than Hogan and Luck did, but if he has a similar improvement, a 10 percentage point improvement in completion percentage (to the mid-60's), a 1 ypa improvement to about 8 ypa and a PER improvement of 25 points to ~155 is all reasonably attainable for Chryst, given precedent. A rating of 155 would put him in the top 25 of QB's, and 8 ypa would place him around 30th.
And keep in mind that this is against a baseline of less than a year in the system, and with several games after a recent severe knee injury.
BC
Quote:I think Chryst may have taken a step back from then to the start of this season, but still after averaging 6.7 yds/att last year is currently at 7.1 yds/att.
Rhetorical question... could him tearing his ACL in the final game last season have played a role in his regression?
I don't buy the idea that Chryst is necessarily closer to his ceiling than Costello. Andrew Luck made a big jump in efficiency after a season with the offense:
2009 56% completion, PER of 143
2010 71% completion, PER of 170
Kevin Hogan made an even bigger jump in efficiency, but it was after two and a half seasons running the offense:
2014 7.9 ypa, PER of 145
2015 9.4 ypa, PER of 171
Both players saw a > 25 point improvement in PER. Chryst has 9 complete games under his belt. His combined stats from last year and this are:
2016 77/136, 56.6%, 905 yards, 6.7 ypa, 10 TD, 2 INT, PER 133.8
2017 47/89, 52.8%, 640 yards, 7.19 ypa, 4 TD, 2 INT, PER 124.5
total 124/225 (55.1%), 1545 yrds 6.9 ypa, 14 TD, 4 INT, PER 129.8
Chryst is starting from a lower baseline than Hogan and Luck did, but if he has a similar improvement, a 10 percentage point improvement in completion percentage (to the mid-60's), a 1 ypa improvement to about 8 ypa and a PER improvement of 25 points to ~155 is all reasonably attainable for Chryst, given precedent. A rating of 155 would put him in the top 25 of QB's, and 8 ypa would place him around 30th.
And keep in mind that this is against a baseline of less than a year in the system, and with several games after a recent severe knee injury.
BC