[washingtonismoney]

Costello is clearly a smoother athlete than Chryst. He moves well in the pocket, has a fine throwing motion, and runs pretty well (and even seemed to start getting the idea that he needs to actually make a read on the read-option).

Given the number of times both Costello and Chryst pulled on the read-option against Utah -- versus barely at all (if at all) early in the season -- I have a hunch this was a deliberate coaching point designed to reduce the risk of injury earlier in the season. Early in the season, you have one guy coming back from injury (Chryst), one guy who once was competent but now is seemingly unable to play even decently (Burns) and one question mark (Costello). Now you believe Costello is at worst a competent backup and possibly much more. And Chryst, certainly, is also at worst a competent backup. So allowing the QBs to scamper a bit more adds a dimension to the offense with (from a strategic perspective) minimal risk.

I think you're correct, though, that the coaches have been simplifying the offense for Costello.

PARAPHRASE:...some arguments to the effect of Stanford QBs improving over the course of their career

Food for thought, but ultimately I disagree BC.

On the Luck point, let's keep in mind that while his completion percentage was quite low as a freshman, I view that more as a designed feature of the offense -- favoring deep bombs -- rather than a commentary on his actual passing ability at the time. His YPA between freshman and sophomore years was identical. The big difference, of course, was having Toby Gerhart versus not having Toby Gerhart. With Toby, efficiency in the passing game is a bit like adding yet another romantic star to Love Actually, or adding another comedian to Airplane!: it's kind of superfluous. Without Toby, well, you need to figure out where your low-variance gains are going to come from. "Andrew Luck" is as good a place as any.

With respect to Hogan, I think his career is ambiguous. Like Luck, he was used as a bomb-thrower in 2013 -- meaning his brobdingnagian gain in YPA (from 7.2 as a freshman to 8.9 as a sophomore) is a truer mark of his performance changing. I think ESPN deleted the page outlining this fact, but Hogan was one of the most efficient deep throwers in the country that year.

Given that perspective, Hogan's 2012-2014 stretch is less continuity than roller coaster: first year operating conservatively with only a few weapons; markedly improved gunslinger his second; and a bunch of on- and off-the-field travails undermined him in his third year. So for me his 2015 year may be less "brobdingnagian improvement from experience" and more "regression to the mean."

But I'll concede my interpretations aren't clear-cut ones. The best argument here remains that Costello is younger. Chryst, a redshirt junior, is older than your previous examples; Costello, in the same age range as Luck and Hogan. That is, if experience really helps a QB -- helps him to a fantastic degree -- why wouldn't we favor Costello, who can potentially reap multiple jumps from experience rather than just one? If that's true, Chryst has to be much better than Costello to favor him in the present. And he's not, I think we can all agree.

That being said, one nice point on the QB play: Utah is a very good passing defense. According to Bill Connelly's stat profiles, the Utes surrender a 32.7% success rate through the year. By my count Stanford QBs got up to 41% on Saturday. Whether that's simply because both Costello and Chryst played reasonably well, or it's the offensive line doing a very good job, or something else, I can't complain.

[washingtonismoney]

Costello is clearly a smoother athlete than Chryst. He moves well in the pocket, has a fine throwing motion, and runs pretty well (and even seemed to start getting the idea that he needs to actually make a read on the read-option).

Given the number of times both Costello and Chryst pulled on the read-option against Utah -- versus barely at all (if at all) early in the season -- I have a hunch this was a deliberate coaching point designed to reduce the risk of injury earlier in the season. Early in the season, you have one guy coming back from injury (Chryst), one guy who once was competent but now is seemingly unable to play even decently (Burns) and one question mark (Costello). Now you believe Costello is at worst a competent backup and possibly much more. And Chryst, certainly, is also at worst a competent backup. So allowing the QBs to scamper a bit more adds a dimension to the offense with (from a strategic perspective) minimal risk.

I think you're correct, though, that the coaches have been simplifying the offense for Costello.

PARAPHRASE:...some arguments to the effect of Stanford QBs improving over the course of their career

Food for thought, but ultimately I disagree BC.

On the Luck point, let's keep in mind that while his completion percentage was quite low as a freshman, I view that more as a designed feature of the offense -- favoring deep bombs -- rather than a commentary on his actual passing ability at the time. His YPA between freshman and sophomore years was identical. The big difference, of course, was having Toby Gerhart versus not having Toby Gerhart. With Toby, efficiency in the passing game is a bit like adding yet another romantic star to Love Actually, or adding another comedian to Airplane!: it's kind of superfluous. Without Toby, well, you need to figure out where your low-variance gains are going to come from. "Andrew Luck" is as good a place as any.

With respect to Hogan, I think his career is ambiguous. Like Luck, he was used as a bomb-thrower in 2013 -- meaning his brobdingnagian gain in YPA (from 7.2 as a freshman to 8.9 as a sophomore) is a truer mark of his performance changing. I think ESPN deleted the page outlining this fact, but Hogan was one of the most efficient deep throwers in the country that year.

Given that perspective, Hogan's 2012-2014 stretch is less continuity than roller coaster: first year operating conservatively with only a few weapons; markedly improved gunslinger his second; and a bunch of on- and off-the-field travails undermined him in his third year. So for me his 2015 year may be less "brobdingnagian improvement from experience" and more "regression to the mean."

But I'll concede my interpretations aren't clear-cut ones. The best argument here remains that Costello is younger. Chryst, a redshirt junior, is older than your previous examples; Costello, in the same age range as Luck and Hogan. That is, if experience really helps a QB -- helps him to a fantastic degree -- why wouldn't we favor Costello, who can potentially reap multiple jumps from experience rather than just one? If that's true, Chryst has to be much better than Costello to favor him in the present. And he's not, I think we can all agree.

That being said, one nice point on the QB play: Utah is a very good passing defense. According to Bill Connelly's stat profiles, the Utes surrender a 32.7% success rate through the year. By my count Stanford QBs got up to 41% on Saturday. Whether that's simply because both Costello and Chryst played reasonably well, or it's the offensive line doing a very good job, or something else, I can't complain.