10-10-2017, 05:52 PM
Yes, what Hogan was asked to do changed year-to-year made a difference. Still, if you look at PER, you get:
2012: 148
2013: 151
2014: 145
2015: 171
I think he gets dinged a lot in 2014 because our offense underperformed overall, and there was the expectation that he would continue to improve, and he didn't (also 2014 was really two seasons: the first 8 or so games, and the last 5). But clearly, regardless of which year you take as a baseline, he jumped after 2 1/2 years as the starter. There was no comparison between 2015 Hogan and any other version of Hogan.
On Luck, his usage increased dramatically between 2009 and 2010 (372 vs. 288 attempted passes). Usually, when usage goes up, stats go down somewhat, since the defense is less geared to stopping the run. Gerhart's presence in 2009 should have made Luck's job easier. Basically, give the ball to Toby on first and second down so that you rarely face a third and long, and occasionally play action pass when the defense is stacking the box and hit a receiver in single coverage (or even uncovered).
I agree Costello is younger, and that ought to give him a longer runway to launch, if you assume that at some point after a year or two behind center the proverbial "light" will go off, and IF two quarterbacks are otherwise equally capable at the moment, then it makes sense to play the younger one. I mean, if it is going to take a year and a half for the big jump in performance to happen to Chryst, then you only see an efficient Chryst for one year. If it takes two and a half years, you don't get to see it at all. On the other hand, if it takes Costello a year and a half to approach his ceiling, then you get to see him play at a high level for two years. But it seems that the coaches don't see them as equiavalent players at this point. I think the fact that Chryst can run the whole offense probably is a big factor. I also think that the coaches discounted some of his poor performances (really only SDSU, and the first couple series against UCLA) as temporary, and perhaps injury related.
BC
2012: 148
2013: 151
2014: 145
2015: 171
I think he gets dinged a lot in 2014 because our offense underperformed overall, and there was the expectation that he would continue to improve, and he didn't (also 2014 was really two seasons: the first 8 or so games, and the last 5). But clearly, regardless of which year you take as a baseline, he jumped after 2 1/2 years as the starter. There was no comparison between 2015 Hogan and any other version of Hogan.
On Luck, his usage increased dramatically between 2009 and 2010 (372 vs. 288 attempted passes). Usually, when usage goes up, stats go down somewhat, since the defense is less geared to stopping the run. Gerhart's presence in 2009 should have made Luck's job easier. Basically, give the ball to Toby on first and second down so that you rarely face a third and long, and occasionally play action pass when the defense is stacking the box and hit a receiver in single coverage (or even uncovered).
I agree Costello is younger, and that ought to give him a longer runway to launch, if you assume that at some point after a year or two behind center the proverbial "light" will go off, and IF two quarterbacks are otherwise equally capable at the moment, then it makes sense to play the younger one. I mean, if it is going to take a year and a half for the big jump in performance to happen to Chryst, then you only see an efficient Chryst for one year. If it takes two and a half years, you don't get to see it at all. On the other hand, if it takes Costello a year and a half to approach his ceiling, then you get to see him play at a high level for two years. But it seems that the coaches don't see them as equiavalent players at this point. I think the fact that Chryst can run the whole offense probably is a big factor. I also think that the coaches discounted some of his poor performances (really only SDSU, and the first couple series against UCLA) as temporary, and perhaps injury related.
BC