[stupac2]

[quote author=stupac2 link=topic=17938.msg211247#msg211247 date=1510200350]
[quote author=CornFed link=topic=17938.msg211243#msg211243 date=1510198423]
[quote author=Boston Card link=topic=17938.msg211237#msg211237 date=1510196398]
For what it is worth, Stanford was a 6 point underdog when I last looked.  6 point underdogs win about 1/3 of the time (http://thecardboard.org/board/index.php?...=211233).  So, we definitely have our work cut out for us on Friday, but beating UW is not impossible.

BC

Almost the same probability that WSU had to beat us.
[/quote]

Wah? WSU was favored in that game.
[/quote]
We were 1.5 - 2 pt. underdogs, but the matchup predictor showed us as having a 65% chance of winning.  I think I mentioned it in a thread at the time cuz it seemed kind of contradictory.
[/quote]

That was probably using FPI, which really likes us for some reason, much more than most other statistical systems. There's no way you go from a range of +3 to -1 and generate a 65% win probability.

[stupac2]

[quote author=stupac2 link=topic=17938.msg211247#msg211247 date=1510200350]
[quote author=CornFed link=topic=17938.msg211243#msg211243 date=1510198423]
[quote author=Boston Card link=topic=17938.msg211237#msg211237 date=1510196398]
For what it is worth, Stanford was a 6 point underdog when I last looked.  6 point underdogs win about 1/3 of the time (http://thecardboard.org/board/index.php?...=211233).  So, we definitely have our work cut out for us on Friday, but beating UW is not impossible.

BC

Almost the same probability that WSU had to beat us.
[/quote]

Wah? WSU was favored in that game.
[/quote]
We were 1.5 - 2 pt. underdogs, but the matchup predictor showed us as having a 65% chance of winning.  I think I mentioned it in a thread at the time cuz it seemed kind of contradictory.
[/quote]

That was probably using FPI, which really likes us for some reason, much more than most other statistical systems. There's no way you go from a range of +3 to -1 and generate a 65% win probability.