[washingtonismoney]

Regarding @terry's post about the interceptions.  A high caliber qb having a ball tipped at the line of scrimmage or in the secondary and being intercepted yields the same result as a lesser QB staring down his receiver and getting picked.  Tipped balls are how we lost in 2OT to ISU. 

It yields the same result, but that's the wrong way to look at it for our purposes. We're interested in forecasting--and tipped balls yielding picks is much more random than staring down receivers and throwing picks. I think your Cyclones example kind of proves the point, actually: they had a third of their season's picks just in that game.

[washingtonismoney]

Regarding @terry's post about the interceptions.  A high caliber qb having a ball tipped at the line of scrimmage or in the secondary and being intercepted yields the same result as a lesser QB staring down his receiver and getting picked.  Tipped balls are how we lost in 2OT to ISU. 

It yields the same result, but that's the wrong way to look at it for our purposes. We're interested in forecasting--and tipped balls yielding picks is much more random than staring down receivers and throwing picks. I think your Cyclones example kind of proves the point, actually: they had a third of their season's picks just in that game.