[qwerty49]

Tough question. Think of the reverse - what makes an offense “robust”?

IMHO a robust offense:
Scores a lot
Despite the fact that you can sometimes see it coming
Sustains drives
Has many facets - if one falls short, another could just as well succeed
Does all this pretty consistently
Doesn’t get totally derailed by an injury to a key player

So maybe a fragile offense:
Is low-scoring
Especially when it’s too predictable
Lots of 3-and-outs
One-dimensional (or maybe just not very creative)
High beta, all or nothing
Not much depth beyond the starters

If you buy the above - Some metrics of fragility suggest themselves pretty readily, e.g. points per drive, or even the std deviation around the point/drive distribution.

Subjectively, a fragile offense to me is one you can pretty easily break with a simple set of tactics. E.g. stack the box, or blitz the QB every down, or spy the QB.

Looking at my own definitions I would have to say Stanford’s O was fragile this year. Very high beta around Bryce and if he would break a long one, and then when he got hurt everything was diminished. I definitely cringed every time Chryst threw the ball (mostly to Irwin in double coverage.). I thought it was relatively easier for the opponents to defense us than for us to defense them.

If you can quantify that stuff BC you’ll win the first Nobel Prize in Statgeeking!

[qwerty49]

Tough question. Think of the reverse - what makes an offense “robust”?

IMHO a robust offense:
Scores a lot
Despite the fact that you can sometimes see it coming
Sustains drives
Has many facets - if one falls short, another could just as well succeed
Does all this pretty consistently
Doesn’t get totally derailed by an injury to a key player

So maybe a fragile offense:
Is low-scoring
Especially when it’s too predictable
Lots of 3-and-outs
One-dimensional (or maybe just not very creative)
High beta, all or nothing
Not much depth beyond the starters

If you buy the above - Some metrics of fragility suggest themselves pretty readily, e.g. points per drive, or even the std deviation around the point/drive distribution.

Subjectively, a fragile offense to me is one you can pretty easily break with a simple set of tactics. E.g. stack the box, or blitz the QB every down, or spy the QB.

Looking at my own definitions I would have to say Stanford’s O was fragile this year. Very high beta around Bryce and if he would break a long one, and then when he got hurt everything was diminished. I definitely cringed every time Chryst threw the ball (mostly to Irwin in double coverage.). I thought it was relatively easier for the opponents to defense us than for us to defense them.

If you can quantify that stuff BC you’ll win the first Nobel Prize in Statgeeking!