[qwerty49]

Here you go:

Costello passing, by down:

1st: 53.7%, 4.99 ypa, 3 touchdowns, 1 interception, 18% first downs
2nd: 65%, 9.01 ypa, 6 touchdowns, 0 interceptions, 36% first downs
3rd: 55.7%, 8.24 ypa, 5 touchdowns, 2 interceptions, 44% first downs

This isn't common, as you can easily guess. 

I don't have a theory for this.  He/coaches tend to call shorter passes on first down (seems likely from the stats) but KJ struggles completing them.

I guess my takeaway from this is that just the avg ypa or yp(rush) isn't enough -- that we need a sense of the distribution because the big plays and stuffed plays skew the averages.

Someone can correct my math on this but I'm tempted to look at the 2nd down numbers and conclude that with 9+ ypa and only 36% 1st downs that our first down play is either incomplete or getting stuffed about 64% of the time.  And I'm not surprised if that indeed is true.

[qwerty49]

Here you go:

Costello passing, by down:

1st: 53.7%, 4.99 ypa, 3 touchdowns, 1 interception, 18% first downs
2nd: 65%, 9.01 ypa, 6 touchdowns, 0 interceptions, 36% first downs
3rd: 55.7%, 8.24 ypa, 5 touchdowns, 2 interceptions, 44% first downs

This isn't common, as you can easily guess. 

I don't have a theory for this.  He/coaches tend to call shorter passes on first down (seems likely from the stats) but KJ struggles completing them.

I guess my takeaway from this is that just the avg ypa or yp(rush) isn't enough -- that we need a sense of the distribution because the big plays and stuffed plays skew the averages.

Someone can correct my math on this but I'm tempted to look at the 2nd down numbers and conclude that with 9+ ypa and only 36% 1st downs that our first down play is either incomplete or getting stuffed about 64% of the time.  And I'm not surprised if that indeed is true.