01-04-2018, 02:59 PM
On two point converesions... it appears the NFL is doing them wrong.
https://www.boydsbets.com/nfl-two-point-...cess-rate/
The success rate running the football is higher than passing (62% to 43%), and yet NFL teams insist on attempting a pass just under 3/4 of the time. I couldn't find a similar analysis for college, but it does suggest dropping back to pass is not a good idea. I could not find a similar number for college.
This year on third down and 1 to 3 yards to go (the situation most analogous to a 2-pt conversion), we passed 17 times and got a first down or touchdown 12 (a conversion rate of 70.5%. We ran the ball under similar circumstances 31 times, and got a first down or touchdown 23 times, a 67.7% conversion rate. Those numbers are close enough to suggest it doesn't really matter, though it appears that nominally it is better to pass than run.
BC
https://www.boydsbets.com/nfl-two-point-...cess-rate/
The success rate running the football is higher than passing (62% to 43%), and yet NFL teams insist on attempting a pass just under 3/4 of the time. I couldn't find a similar analysis for college, but it does suggest dropping back to pass is not a good idea. I could not find a similar number for college.
This year on third down and 1 to 3 yards to go (the situation most analogous to a 2-pt conversion), we passed 17 times and got a first down or touchdown 12 (a conversion rate of 70.5%. We ran the ball under similar circumstances 31 times, and got a first down or touchdown 23 times, a 67.7% conversion rate. Those numbers are close enough to suggest it doesn't really matter, though it appears that nominally it is better to pass than run.
BC