02-17-2018, 05:12 PM
First off, while Stanford's margin of victory came from the diving, the difference was not as dramatic as the GoStanford story suggests. Scoring for each event is 9-4-3-2-1 for 1st through 5th. Given that Stanford had just two divers, the most they could score would be 9 + 4, 9 + 4 = 26, and in fact they scored 25. So 25 out of a possible 26. However, the remainder of the available points (3 + 2 + 1 and 4 + 2 + 1 = 13) went to Cal.
As the bigger question of the meaning of the dual meet victory, the weenies are correct about their advantage at more consequential meets. Only the stars score at NCAAs, given each event involves only the top 30-35 swimmers in the country, and Cal has many more top caliber swimmers than Stanford at this time. Stars and very good swimmer score at the collective Pac-12 meet, given that there are only six teams, and the top 12 in each event score points (out of about 25-30 swimmers entered). In dual meets, each race has only 3 or 4 swimmers from each team, and the top five places score.
Another consideration in comparing meet performances involves whether or not a swimmer is rested (tapered). No one tapers for a dual meet, so the competition is apples v. apples. At Pac-12's (which start in 11 days), lesser talented swimmers taper, either because it will be their last meet of the year or/and because they hope to qualify for NCAAs. Top swimmers have usually already qualified for NCAAs before Pac-12s, and are pointing toward the NCAA championships, so they do not rest for Pac-12s. Therefore, as with dual meets, at Pac-12s a team with a lot of good to very good swimmers might beat a star-studded team because most of the swimmers on the former are rested and targeting Pac-12s, whereas most of the swimmers on the latter are still in heavy training. This explains how the Stanford men have won the last two Pac-12s, but finished far behind Cal at NCAAs.
Aside from all of the above, today's results are nevertheless very encouraging. I recall several years back when Cal finished 1st, 2nd, 3rd (and in some cases also 4th) in most of the races. It was a complete whitewash. Today represented quite an improvement. To be sure, Stanford has to be the equal or better of Cal in recruiting for the next couple/three years to reach their level, but there's reason to hope that after a few lean years by Stanford's standard, they have a chance to again compete for a national championship in the coming years.
As the bigger question of the meaning of the dual meet victory, the weenies are correct about their advantage at more consequential meets. Only the stars score at NCAAs, given each event involves only the top 30-35 swimmers in the country, and Cal has many more top caliber swimmers than Stanford at this time. Stars and very good swimmer score at the collective Pac-12 meet, given that there are only six teams, and the top 12 in each event score points (out of about 25-30 swimmers entered). In dual meets, each race has only 3 or 4 swimmers from each team, and the top five places score.
Another consideration in comparing meet performances involves whether or not a swimmer is rested (tapered). No one tapers for a dual meet, so the competition is apples v. apples. At Pac-12's (which start in 11 days), lesser talented swimmers taper, either because it will be their last meet of the year or/and because they hope to qualify for NCAAs. Top swimmers have usually already qualified for NCAAs before Pac-12s, and are pointing toward the NCAA championships, so they do not rest for Pac-12s. Therefore, as with dual meets, at Pac-12s a team with a lot of good to very good swimmers might beat a star-studded team because most of the swimmers on the former are rested and targeting Pac-12s, whereas most of the swimmers on the latter are still in heavy training. This explains how the Stanford men have won the last two Pac-12s, but finished far behind Cal at NCAAs.
Aside from all of the above, today's results are nevertheless very encouraging. I recall several years back when Cal finished 1st, 2nd, 3rd (and in some cases also 4th) in most of the races. It was a complete whitewash. Today represented quite an improvement. To be sure, Stanford has to be the equal or better of Cal in recruiting for the next couple/three years to reach their level, but there's reason to hope that after a few lean years by Stanford's standard, they have a chance to again compete for a national championship in the coming years.
