04-30-2018, 09:46 AM
As for how winning the Pac-12 tournament affects our seeding, here are some thoughts:
1. We will absolutely be in the Top 16 and hosting. No question.
2. UCLA was ranked 13th, so beating them is very useful to a nice climb in the rankings.
3. The ACC tournament played out about perfectly for us, with the top seeds cruising, Florida State (17th in the last rankings) getting upset in its first match, Miami (15th) losing to Duke in the semis, and Virginia (20th) getting upset in its first match. So, none of the ACC schools that were in competition with us will be any threat.
4. That said, the Big 12 and Big Ten tournaments didn't go great. In the Big 12 tournament, we needed Kansas to not do well, and they obliged, losing to Baylor in a first-round upset. We were never going to catch Texas (currently 6th), so the Longhorns' run to the title is fine, but we really could have used a poor Texas Tech performance. Instead, the Red Raiders (currently 14th, but 8 points up on us in the last rankings) made the final and upset 7th-ranked Oklahoma State in the semis. Had Texas Tech lost, we might have passed them, but as it is, I wouldn't be shocked for both of those teams to stay ahead of us. Oklahoma State was just so far ahead of us in terms of ranking points that I don't think we can catch them. As for the Big Ten tournament, we wanted Illinois to do poorly and for Michigan to not go on a run. Illinois did its part, beating #44 Nebraska but losing to #2 seed Michigan. Michigan, however, ended up winning the title over 12th-ranked Northwestern, meaning Michigan notched wins over unranked Michigan State, #19 Illinois, and #12 Northwestern. Sure, Michigan was 7.4 points behind us in the last rankings (41.44 to 34.02), so they have a ton of ground to make up. I don't think they can do that. Maybe if we'd lost to UCLA, but we notched wins over #43, #48, and #13 ourselves. (FYI, Northwestern was 12th, up 11.2 points on us last week. That's a lot to make up, even though Northwestern only beat one good team, #28 Ohio State, during the tournament.)
5. We've now beaten UCLA twice, but they'll probably be seeded above us, because they were about 9.5 points up on us going into the week. We beat #43, #48, and #13, while they beat #30 and #35 before losing to #16. With as many data points as are factored into the rankings at this point, it's hard to make up a 9.5-point swing. (As a point of comparison, Stanford gained about 4 points after winning the Pac-12 tournament last year.)
6. Because of how things played out, I think a single-digit seed is out of reach. I think you'll see a glut of teams in the low 50s and high 40s on average. I think we're 15th. I think we'll be well ahead of the team ranked 16th and that we'll be very close, points-wise, to the teams ranked 10th-14th, but I'm not sure we've got enough to pass them. (We could be 12th, too.
7. If we're 15th, that would set up a Round of 16 matchup against the #2 seed, which at this point will either be Vanderbilt or North Carolina. (Both won their conference tournaments, beating multiple highly-ranked teams along the way. I'm not sure how that shakes out.) If it's Vandy, I'd relish another shot at them. Yes, we got swept there, but we were without Lord and we were still very competitive in singles, with Gordon losing in three at 1, Lampl losing in three at 3, Shin losing a third-set tiebreaker at 5, and Higuchi (at 4) and Yee (at 6) dropping absolute heartbreakers, 7-6, 7-5 and 7-6, 7-6, respectively. Arbuthnott's loss at Court 2 was the only match that wasn't close. Put Lord at 2 and that match is instantly competitive. Right now, I'd say 1, 2, and 5 would be toss-ups, 3 would lean to Vanderbilt, and 4 and 6 would lean our way. I think our doubles has gotten much stronger as the year has gone on (and Lord paired with Shin at 3 makes that a more powerful duo), so yeah, we might lose, but every match from the Round of 16 on will be exceedingly close. This is the fun part!
7. If we're somewhere from 12th to 14th, then possible Round of 16 opponents include Duke, Georgia Tech, Ole Miss, or a rematch against Texas. (Given our current lineup and form, I think we beat Texas if we play them again. I'd say Court 1 would lean to Texas, Court 2, 3, 5, and 6 would lean our way, and Court 4 would be a toss-up. And we'd be favored in doubles, too.)
8. If we're 15th, I am obligated to remind you that the last time we were the 15th seed, we won the whole darn thing. There, our ranking was weighed down by the fact that #1 player Carol Zhao missed much of the year training with the Canadian national team, but she was back by NCAAs. We then enjoyed the most white-knuckle ride to a championship that I can remember, getting pushed to the brink from the second round onwards. (Oh yeah. The downside of being underseeded is that you'll play someone in Round 2 that has a legit chance to beat you, because they're one of the teams that just missed out on hosting themselves, so before we get too confident at making the Round of 16, we have to beat someone of Miami's or Florida State's caliber to get there.) 4-3 over Texas A&M, then upsetting #1-ranked (but 2nd-seeded) Florida in the Round of 16, then 4-3 over #10 Michigan, 4-2 over #6 Vanderbilt, and 4-3 in that classic final over #12 Oklahoma State.
We wouldn't be in this position, sweating out seeding, if we played more matches during the year against good teams. An obvious culprit is not playing ITA Kick-Off Weekend (and the subsequent Team Indoor Nationals). But just as important is the fact that we didn't play and beat Pepperdine this year due to weather, and that the rest of the Pac-12, aside from UCLA, is a bit down. Cal should be a perennial top 20 team, but they were in and out of the Top 50 this year. USC shouldn't be too far behind them, but they were out of the rankings more often than they were in this year. Oregon, Arizona State, and Washington State were all ranked higher than usual, true, but you need marquee wins to climb the rankings, and beating teams in the 30s and 40s doesn't get it done. But leaving all of that aside, if you assume we were healthy all year, it's likely that this team is 20-1 rather than 18-3, with wins over SEC runner-up Florida and Big 12 champ Texas. With those two big wins, we'd probably be seeded somewhere from 7th to 9th. If it doesn't rain and we beat Pepperdine, we're probably 5th or 6th. But with the light schedule, there's no margin for error or injury (or for Cal, say, to have a down year).
1. We will absolutely be in the Top 16 and hosting. No question.
2. UCLA was ranked 13th, so beating them is very useful to a nice climb in the rankings.
3. The ACC tournament played out about perfectly for us, with the top seeds cruising, Florida State (17th in the last rankings) getting upset in its first match, Miami (15th) losing to Duke in the semis, and Virginia (20th) getting upset in its first match. So, none of the ACC schools that were in competition with us will be any threat.
4. That said, the Big 12 and Big Ten tournaments didn't go great. In the Big 12 tournament, we needed Kansas to not do well, and they obliged, losing to Baylor in a first-round upset. We were never going to catch Texas (currently 6th), so the Longhorns' run to the title is fine, but we really could have used a poor Texas Tech performance. Instead, the Red Raiders (currently 14th, but 8 points up on us in the last rankings) made the final and upset 7th-ranked Oklahoma State in the semis. Had Texas Tech lost, we might have passed them, but as it is, I wouldn't be shocked for both of those teams to stay ahead of us. Oklahoma State was just so far ahead of us in terms of ranking points that I don't think we can catch them. As for the Big Ten tournament, we wanted Illinois to do poorly and for Michigan to not go on a run. Illinois did its part, beating #44 Nebraska but losing to #2 seed Michigan. Michigan, however, ended up winning the title over 12th-ranked Northwestern, meaning Michigan notched wins over unranked Michigan State, #19 Illinois, and #12 Northwestern. Sure, Michigan was 7.4 points behind us in the last rankings (41.44 to 34.02), so they have a ton of ground to make up. I don't think they can do that. Maybe if we'd lost to UCLA, but we notched wins over #43, #48, and #13 ourselves. (FYI, Northwestern was 12th, up 11.2 points on us last week. That's a lot to make up, even though Northwestern only beat one good team, #28 Ohio State, during the tournament.)
5. We've now beaten UCLA twice, but they'll probably be seeded above us, because they were about 9.5 points up on us going into the week. We beat #43, #48, and #13, while they beat #30 and #35 before losing to #16. With as many data points as are factored into the rankings at this point, it's hard to make up a 9.5-point swing. (As a point of comparison, Stanford gained about 4 points after winning the Pac-12 tournament last year.)
6. Because of how things played out, I think a single-digit seed is out of reach. I think you'll see a glut of teams in the low 50s and high 40s on average. I think we're 15th. I think we'll be well ahead of the team ranked 16th and that we'll be very close, points-wise, to the teams ranked 10th-14th, but I'm not sure we've got enough to pass them. (We could be 12th, too.
7. If we're 15th, that would set up a Round of 16 matchup against the #2 seed, which at this point will either be Vanderbilt or North Carolina. (Both won their conference tournaments, beating multiple highly-ranked teams along the way. I'm not sure how that shakes out.) If it's Vandy, I'd relish another shot at them. Yes, we got swept there, but we were without Lord and we were still very competitive in singles, with Gordon losing in three at 1, Lampl losing in three at 3, Shin losing a third-set tiebreaker at 5, and Higuchi (at 4) and Yee (at 6) dropping absolute heartbreakers, 7-6, 7-5 and 7-6, 7-6, respectively. Arbuthnott's loss at Court 2 was the only match that wasn't close. Put Lord at 2 and that match is instantly competitive. Right now, I'd say 1, 2, and 5 would be toss-ups, 3 would lean to Vanderbilt, and 4 and 6 would lean our way. I think our doubles has gotten much stronger as the year has gone on (and Lord paired with Shin at 3 makes that a more powerful duo), so yeah, we might lose, but every match from the Round of 16 on will be exceedingly close. This is the fun part!
7. If we're somewhere from 12th to 14th, then possible Round of 16 opponents include Duke, Georgia Tech, Ole Miss, or a rematch against Texas. (Given our current lineup and form, I think we beat Texas if we play them again. I'd say Court 1 would lean to Texas, Court 2, 3, 5, and 6 would lean our way, and Court 4 would be a toss-up. And we'd be favored in doubles, too.)
8. If we're 15th, I am obligated to remind you that the last time we were the 15th seed, we won the whole darn thing. There, our ranking was weighed down by the fact that #1 player Carol Zhao missed much of the year training with the Canadian national team, but she was back by NCAAs. We then enjoyed the most white-knuckle ride to a championship that I can remember, getting pushed to the brink from the second round onwards. (Oh yeah. The downside of being underseeded is that you'll play someone in Round 2 that has a legit chance to beat you, because they're one of the teams that just missed out on hosting themselves, so before we get too confident at making the Round of 16, we have to beat someone of Miami's or Florida State's caliber to get there.) 4-3 over Texas A&M, then upsetting #1-ranked (but 2nd-seeded) Florida in the Round of 16, then 4-3 over #10 Michigan, 4-2 over #6 Vanderbilt, and 4-3 in that classic final over #12 Oklahoma State.
We wouldn't be in this position, sweating out seeding, if we played more matches during the year against good teams. An obvious culprit is not playing ITA Kick-Off Weekend (and the subsequent Team Indoor Nationals). But just as important is the fact that we didn't play and beat Pepperdine this year due to weather, and that the rest of the Pac-12, aside from UCLA, is a bit down. Cal should be a perennial top 20 team, but they were in and out of the Top 50 this year. USC shouldn't be too far behind them, but they were out of the rankings more often than they were in this year. Oregon, Arizona State, and Washington State were all ranked higher than usual, true, but you need marquee wins to climb the rankings, and beating teams in the 30s and 40s doesn't get it done. But leaving all of that aside, if you assume we were healthy all year, it's likely that this team is 20-1 rather than 18-3, with wins over SEC runner-up Florida and Big 12 champ Texas. With those two big wins, we'd probably be seeded somewhere from 7th to 9th. If it doesn't rain and we beat Pepperdine, we're probably 5th or 6th. But with the light schedule, there's no margin for error or injury (or for Cal, say, to have a down year).