05-11-2018, 10:30 AM
(This post was last modified: 05-11-2018, 01:06 PM by ColoradoTree.)
The other Pac-12 women's teams in the tournament--UCLA, Arizona State, and Oregon--are also active today.
* ASU plays Wake Forest in Athens, GA. ASU lost the doubles point very narrowly. Based on ranking, Wake is favored (29 to 37), but ASU has a slightly better UTR Power 6 rating, so this could go either way. UTR would predict WF wins at 1, 2, and 4, ASU wins at 5 and 6, and a complete toss-up at 3, but none of the individual matchups is all that lopsided, so we'll see how that plays out. The winner gets #7 Georgia tomorrow. UPDATE: It's 2-2 with the remaining matches into third sets. ASU got wins at 5 and 6, and Wake won at 4, so UTR is right so far. 1 and 3 are into third sets with opposite momentum (ASU surging at 1, fading at 3), and a third set is just starting on Court 2. UPDATE 2: ASU lost big in the third set on 3, so now it's 3-2 Wake Forest with ASU down a break at 4-2 on Court 1 and ASU leading 2-0 on Court 2. ASU needs both to advance, but after taking the second set 6-1, ASU's John-Baptiste is on the verge of watching it all slip away. UPDATE 3: She watched it slip away. ASU loses 4-2. Sigh.
* Oregon is playing Tennessee. The ITA thinks Oregon is slightly better (33 to 38), but UTR rankings think Oregon is significantly better (20th to 41st). In the early going in doubles now. In singles, UTR would predict Oregon wins at the top 4 spots and losses at 5 and 6, but again, they're fairly close. If Oregon wins, they'll get #3 Duke tomorrow. UPDATE: Oregon lost the doubles point, but won first sets in singles at 3, 4, and 5, lost the first set at 6, is in a tiebreaker at 1 and is down a break late in the first at 2. Tennessee is cruising in the second set on Court 4, however. This one will be tight. UPDATE 2: Oregon's Tobita lost the first set in a tiebreaker, and Sangwan is into a tiebreaker in the first at Court 2. Of the other four matches, Oregon won three first sets, but don't lead in any of the second sets. UPDATE 3: A nice change in momentum for Oregon, as Sangwan won a marathon tiebreaker to take her first set, Tobita charged back in her second set to force a third, and Oregon got a win on Court 4. Tennessee won on 6, so the Vols lead 2-1 with four matches remaining. 1: Tobita tied, 6-7, 6-1, 0-0; 2: Sangwan leads 7-6, 0-0; 3: Oregon trails: 6-0, 4-6, 0-1; 5: Oregon leads 6-4, 3-5. Oregon needs 3 of 4 to advance. UPDATE 4: Everything going Oregon's way at the moment, coming back to win the second set and the match at 5 to tie up the overall match at 2-2, and winning 6-3 in the third set at 3 to give Oregon a 3-2 lead. Oregon looks primed to clinch soon, leading 7-6, 5-2 on Court 2, and leading 4-3 in the third (up a break) on Court 1. Close enough that Oregon can taste it. 4 points away....
* UCLA hosts Fresno State at 2:00pm. They will win handily. The real challenge will be Baylor (ranked 25th in the ITA, but with the 15th-best UTR) tomorrow, just like Stanford's challenge against Michigan.
And as for the other match going on at Stanford today, the doubles point was closer than expected. Michigan won 6-0 at #1, but Courts 2 and 3 went down to the wire before Michigan took the point. It probably won't be, but let's hope the match is close! UPDATE: It's not that close! That said, Melounova responded to losing the first set 6-1 to Fahey by going up a break, 4-3 in the second. But Michigan won all 6 first sets and leads in the second set in 5 of them, so this one should end 4-0.
FYI, this is the first year that Cal has ever missed the women's tournament. Stanford and UCLA are thus the only schools who haven't missed it, so they're tied for the lead in consecutive appearances with 37. Historic failure from Cal. Normally, I'd celebrate that, but Cal being miss-the-tournament bad hurts us and our ranking, and I am opposed to that.
* ASU plays Wake Forest in Athens, GA. ASU lost the doubles point very narrowly. Based on ranking, Wake is favored (29 to 37), but ASU has a slightly better UTR Power 6 rating, so this could go either way. UTR would predict WF wins at 1, 2, and 4, ASU wins at 5 and 6, and a complete toss-up at 3, but none of the individual matchups is all that lopsided, so we'll see how that plays out. The winner gets #7 Georgia tomorrow. UPDATE: It's 2-2 with the remaining matches into third sets. ASU got wins at 5 and 6, and Wake won at 4, so UTR is right so far. 1 and 3 are into third sets with opposite momentum (ASU surging at 1, fading at 3), and a third set is just starting on Court 2. UPDATE 2: ASU lost big in the third set on 3, so now it's 3-2 Wake Forest with ASU down a break at 4-2 on Court 1 and ASU leading 2-0 on Court 2. ASU needs both to advance, but after taking the second set 6-1, ASU's John-Baptiste is on the verge of watching it all slip away. UPDATE 3: She watched it slip away. ASU loses 4-2. Sigh.
* Oregon is playing Tennessee. The ITA thinks Oregon is slightly better (33 to 38), but UTR rankings think Oregon is significantly better (20th to 41st). In the early going in doubles now. In singles, UTR would predict Oregon wins at the top 4 spots and losses at 5 and 6, but again, they're fairly close. If Oregon wins, they'll get #3 Duke tomorrow. UPDATE: Oregon lost the doubles point, but won first sets in singles at 3, 4, and 5, lost the first set at 6, is in a tiebreaker at 1 and is down a break late in the first at 2. Tennessee is cruising in the second set on Court 4, however. This one will be tight. UPDATE 2: Oregon's Tobita lost the first set in a tiebreaker, and Sangwan is into a tiebreaker in the first at Court 2. Of the other four matches, Oregon won three first sets, but don't lead in any of the second sets. UPDATE 3: A nice change in momentum for Oregon, as Sangwan won a marathon tiebreaker to take her first set, Tobita charged back in her second set to force a third, and Oregon got a win on Court 4. Tennessee won on 6, so the Vols lead 2-1 with four matches remaining. 1: Tobita tied, 6-7, 6-1, 0-0; 2: Sangwan leads 7-6, 0-0; 3: Oregon trails: 6-0, 4-6, 0-1; 5: Oregon leads 6-4, 3-5. Oregon needs 3 of 4 to advance. UPDATE 4: Everything going Oregon's way at the moment, coming back to win the second set and the match at 5 to tie up the overall match at 2-2, and winning 6-3 in the third set at 3 to give Oregon a 3-2 lead. Oregon looks primed to clinch soon, leading 7-6, 5-2 on Court 2, and leading 4-3 in the third (up a break) on Court 1. Close enough that Oregon can taste it. 4 points away....
* UCLA hosts Fresno State at 2:00pm. They will win handily. The real challenge will be Baylor (ranked 25th in the ITA, but with the 15th-best UTR) tomorrow, just like Stanford's challenge against Michigan.
And as for the other match going on at Stanford today, the doubles point was closer than expected. Michigan won 6-0 at #1, but Courts 2 and 3 went down to the wire before Michigan took the point. It probably won't be, but let's hope the match is close! UPDATE: It's not that close! That said, Melounova responded to losing the first set 6-1 to Fahey by going up a break, 4-3 in the second. But Michigan won all 6 first sets and leads in the second set in 5 of them, so this one should end 4-0.
FYI, this is the first year that Cal has ever missed the women's tournament. Stanford and UCLA are thus the only schools who haven't missed it, so they're tied for the lead in consecutive appearances with 37. Historic failure from Cal. Normally, I'd celebrate that, but Cal being miss-the-tournament bad hurts us and our ranking, and I am opposed to that.