05-14-2018, 08:25 AM
So, just like two years ago, we get a match worthy of a final in the Round of 16 on the women's side. I'll do a full preview before Thursday's match and start a new thread, but from a UTR perspective, there's no reason why we can't win this. In that Tennis Recruiting roundtable discussion I posted here, one of the analysts picked Duke over North Carolina and Vanderbilt for the title and cited a 4-2 individual UTR advantage as the reason why.
Well, Stanford has that same advantage over North Carolina. Here's how it looks by each position:
1. Gordon by 0.22
2. Lord by 0.37
3. UNC by 0.04
4. UNC by 0.09
5. Shin by 0.25
6. Higuchi by 0.5
It could easily come down to the doubles point, where you might have to give a slight advantage to UNC. Rankings-wise, it should help for UNC to throw out the #2 team on Court 1 (vs. the #3 team) and the #33 team on Court 2 (vs. #84 Lampl/Yee). But that ignores how tough Lampl and Yee have been (a 15-2 dual match record), and I'm not picking anyone against Lord/Shin at #3 doubles (11-1 in dual matches) the rest of the way.
FYI, slam.tennis says Stanford has a 25% chance to win. I think that misreads it, but there's such a big spread in ITA rankings that it's tough to accurately predict this one. If you were just looking at ITA rankings, you might expect an even smaller upset chance for the #15 team playing the #1. If you're looking at USTA rankings, the idea of #6 beating #2 isn't so farfetched. But if you look at UTR, then it's Stanford, rather than UNC, that is a narrow favorite. Ultimately, we have to remember that all of these rankings systems depend in large part on the team's resume throughout the year, and UNC blows us out of the water there. But just because their 11-3 record against Top 25 teams (compared to our 3-3 record) is what contributes to that rankings boost doesn't mean that record is meaningless. They have played--and beaten--many, many more good teams this year than Stanford has, and that experience is valuable. Stanford's case is based on (1) the quality of its players, and (2) the quality of its coaching, especially in the NCAAs. And it's a good case! But it's hard to blame anyone who looks at all the numbers, considers that Winston-Salem is just an hour and 15 minutes from Chapel Hill, and thinks UNC will have an edge.
As for the other Round of 16 matches, slam.tennis mostly predicts close ones. #5 Ole Miss is only a 57% favorite over #12 UCLA, FSU is 55% to win over Tulsa, #13 Pepperdine is actually a 66% favorite over #4 Georgia Tech, #6 Texas is 68% to win over #11 Texas Tech, and #7 Georgia is 57% to win over #10 South Carolina. The only matches behind us in terms of anticipated closeness are #1 Vanderbilt being 92% likely to win over #16 Miami and #3 Duke being a 87% favorite over #14 Northwestern. (I don't know the exact makeup of the calculation that generates those percentages, but it factors in ITA ranking, USTA ranking, slam.tennis's own ranking (in which Stanford is 7th), and the UTR Power 6 (in which Stanford is 1st), at least.)
Well, Stanford has that same advantage over North Carolina. Here's how it looks by each position:
1. Gordon by 0.22
2. Lord by 0.37
3. UNC by 0.04
4. UNC by 0.09
5. Shin by 0.25
6. Higuchi by 0.5
It could easily come down to the doubles point, where you might have to give a slight advantage to UNC. Rankings-wise, it should help for UNC to throw out the #2 team on Court 1 (vs. the #3 team) and the #33 team on Court 2 (vs. #84 Lampl/Yee). But that ignores how tough Lampl and Yee have been (a 15-2 dual match record), and I'm not picking anyone against Lord/Shin at #3 doubles (11-1 in dual matches) the rest of the way.
FYI, slam.tennis says Stanford has a 25% chance to win. I think that misreads it, but there's such a big spread in ITA rankings that it's tough to accurately predict this one. If you were just looking at ITA rankings, you might expect an even smaller upset chance for the #15 team playing the #1. If you're looking at USTA rankings, the idea of #6 beating #2 isn't so farfetched. But if you look at UTR, then it's Stanford, rather than UNC, that is a narrow favorite. Ultimately, we have to remember that all of these rankings systems depend in large part on the team's resume throughout the year, and UNC blows us out of the water there. But just because their 11-3 record against Top 25 teams (compared to our 3-3 record) is what contributes to that rankings boost doesn't mean that record is meaningless. They have played--and beaten--many, many more good teams this year than Stanford has, and that experience is valuable. Stanford's case is based on (1) the quality of its players, and (2) the quality of its coaching, especially in the NCAAs. And it's a good case! But it's hard to blame anyone who looks at all the numbers, considers that Winston-Salem is just an hour and 15 minutes from Chapel Hill, and thinks UNC will have an edge.
As for the other Round of 16 matches, slam.tennis mostly predicts close ones. #5 Ole Miss is only a 57% favorite over #12 UCLA, FSU is 55% to win over Tulsa, #13 Pepperdine is actually a 66% favorite over #4 Georgia Tech, #6 Texas is 68% to win over #11 Texas Tech, and #7 Georgia is 57% to win over #10 South Carolina. The only matches behind us in terms of anticipated closeness are #1 Vanderbilt being 92% likely to win over #16 Miami and #3 Duke being a 87% favorite over #14 Northwestern. (I don't know the exact makeup of the calculation that generates those percentages, but it factors in ITA ranking, USTA ranking, slam.tennis's own ranking (in which Stanford is 7th), and the UTR Power 6 (in which Stanford is 1st), at least.)