[BostonCard]

I think what the poster meant was that the sack (without the fumble) was going to give us the ball in the same 10 yard gain area in any case. The fumble netted us almost nothing, less than a yard at most.

Well, sure, except there wasn't any sack. Alfieri poked the ball out without bringing Daniels down. (around :49 seconds here: https://twitter.com/StanfordFball/status...2403057664).

Two things.  First "turnover luck" refers to the fact that on average, the defense recovers about 50% of fumbles, so if you are recovering a larger proportion than that, you are "lucky".  In this case, had USC recovered the fumble, we wouldn't have gotten credit for the turnover, but we would have still gotten the ball in the exact same position.

On your second question, it is tough to tell.  Alfieri had him, but realized the ball had come out and so went after the ball instead of finishing Daniels off.  On the other hand, Daniels had at least one other play where he escaped miraculously from a certain sack (and a second one where it wasn't quite miraculous, but he did get away from pressure), so it is not clear that Alfieri would have had him.  Still, you would have liked your chances with a linebacker draped all over the QB 5 yards behind the line of scrimmage on fourth down.

BC

[BostonCard]

I think what the poster meant was that the sack (without the fumble) was going to give us the ball in the same 10 yard gain area in any case. The fumble netted us almost nothing, less than a yard at most.

Well, sure, except there wasn't any sack. Alfieri poked the ball out without bringing Daniels down. (around :49 seconds here: https://twitter.com/StanfordFball/status...2403057664).

Two things.  First "turnover luck" refers to the fact that on average, the defense recovers about 50% of fumbles, so if you are recovering a larger proportion than that, you are "lucky".  In this case, had USC recovered the fumble, we wouldn't have gotten credit for the turnover, but we would have still gotten the ball in the exact same position.

On your second question, it is tough to tell.  Alfieri had him, but realized the ball had come out and so went after the ball instead of finishing Daniels off.  On the other hand, Daniels had at least one other play where he escaped miraculously from a certain sack (and a second one where it wasn't quite miraculous, but he did get away from pressure), so it is not clear that Alfieri would have had him.  Still, you would have liked your chances with a linebacker draped all over the QB 5 yards behind the line of scrimmage on fourth down.

BC