(10-19-2018, 05:43 PM)BostonCard Wrote:(10-19-2018, 02:20 PM)CTcard Wrote: Of course I temper all of this with the fact that it actually did work, that ASU ran out of time, so I shouldn't be too certain of my stance.
"It worked" doesn't mean it was the right decision, and I think there is general consensus on this board about that. As I think D4Cohn has mentioned, when we got the ball back with 2 minutes left in the third quarter and a two touchdown lead, our probability of winning the game was 95%, so at the time we started turtling, we were expected to win the game. Shaw's chosen course of action did lower that probability to 83% when Trevor Speights ran for two yards on third and 12 with a touchdown lead and 6 minutes left in the game, so I think turtling that early hurt us.
All's well that ends well, but some day we will face a team that will throw a touchdown from the 20 yard line with time expiring and then beat us in overtime because Shaw decided to turtle too early.
BC
I don't mean to be too cantankerous here, but ...
- that sentence you quote from me followed a lengthy paragraph as to why I thought this turtling in this situation was the wrong move.
- The fact that ""It worked" doesn't MEAN it was the right decision" is not the same thing as "It worked" not being evidence that it might have been the correct decision.
- Please don't treat ESPN's "odds of winning" as absolute truth.
- Odds of winning dropping is at least as much about what happened as soundness of strategy.
- Of course one day Stanford will lose after having a substantial lead late - regardless of strategy.