11-05-2018, 09:13 AM
(11-05-2018, 05:18 AM)JPR36 Wrote:(11-05-2018, 04:27 AM)Austroturf Wrote: Just a few comments on the immediate posts above:
1) I would also like to see Shaw get back to his power-running system, as unsexy as it might be. It worked; and the entire stretch of excellence we have seen from, say, 2009 till today was built on this philosophy. When it worked, it was a thing of beauty.
2) But it isn't working today; and as I noted above, this is a combination of unsuccessful recruiting and deficient player development in key positions. We appear to have the O-line talent on paper (how we were all drooling when Little and Sarrell signed on), but still have a dysfunctional O-line (coaching? player development? toughness?). On the front seven, we appear to be thin on talent and depth, or is this also merely player development and coaching? Whatever the case, it points back to COACHING! No way around this.
3) I accept the explanations that Shaw has been better in odd years and less stellar in even years due to the home-away scheduling of strong opponents (Oregon, Washington, Notre Dame and UCLA all away in even years; in fact, we have 5 out of 9 conference games away in even years and 5 out of 9 conference games at home in odd years, so there is also that handicap in even years). But we also have a strong WSU program and USC away in odd years, so that partially offsets the advantage.
4) Also, there is no denying that we are losing more and more games as the Shaw era progresses. 2015 was a spike against the overall trend, but here is the raw tally of losses since the 2010 season (Harbaugh's last):
2010 1
2011 2
2012 2
2013 3
2014 5
2015 2
2016 3
2017 5
2018 4 and counting
In the four years from 2010 to 2013, we had a total of 8 losses (on average, two per season); in the four years from 2014 to 2017, we accumulated 15 losses (or almost twice as many and nearly 4 per season).
Yes, the conference competition has improved; but it is unlikely that all FBS programs nationwide have improved; and we had some pretty impressive final rankings in the earlier years. 2015, again, is a bit of an outlier in this trend.
2010 #4 Orange Bowl
2011 #7 Fiesta Bowl
2012 #7 Rose Bowl
2013 #11 Rose Bowl
2014 NR Foster Farms Bowl
2015 #3 Rose Bowl
2016 #12 Sun Bowl
2017 #20 Alamo Bowl
2018 NR ????
Many other key stats underscore this trend (points scored vs. points given up, total rushing yards vs. rushing yards given up, etc.). In the years from 2010-2013, we had 4 straight BCS bowls. From 2014-2017, we had one (2015); and 2018 will certainly be a low level bowl.
Whenever these details are highlighted, I hear that we should just remember the Teevens/Harris years and quit griping. Yes, 8-4 and 7-5 are still much preferable to Walt's last season at 1-11. But I believe it would be a mistake to start comparing our current situation with past epic failures; and I sure don't think Shaw is doing this. The numbers don't lie: the program relative to the competition is regressing. This is a shame; and right now, I am not confident that this will be fixed in the near future. Until the root causes are addressed and fixed, I foresee seasons of between 4 and 6 losses in our immediate future (which matches nicely with 2017 and 2018). I sure hope I am wrong; I always love it when Shaw proves me wrong. But this year he proved me wrong in the opposite direction. I predicted 9-3 at the beginning of the season. I was wrong.
I believe things have just gotten a bit too comfortable in the halls of Cardinal football. A bit of regression to the mean is normal; and the sky is certainly not falling, at least not yet. But if Shaw ever wants to sniff a top ten seasonal ranking again, big changes will be necessary, both in the coaching staff and the way we recruit. We will probably end this season unranked for the second time in five years. I hope this is not the new normal.
Yeah, we seem to be regressing back to the days when 7-5 was considered a pretty successful season. As I posted before, the team this year seems to resemble the teams from the bad old days. Good pass, no run, and a mediocre defense. Also, when the game is on the line against a good team, you can expect them to make the plays necessary to win rather than us.
Like you said, I hope this isn't the new norm.
Five losses per year was Tyrone Willingham's average (5.1, to be exact). Just a heads up that Shaw's regression is indeed a decline.
Audaces fortuna iuvat